J1 League · 07 Nov 2026

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen NagasakiMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.

Recorded match result

Result pending — kickoff has not passed.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 07 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 06 Nov 2026 21:03 UTC; synced 07 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC. Saved 07 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
2.18
Without margin
42.70%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+2.30 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.28
Without margin
28.38%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+16.62 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
3.22
Without margin
28.91%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-18.91 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.42%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Avispa Fukuoka

LWLLD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
4 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Avispa Fukuoka scored 4 and conceded 6 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Avispa Fukuoka 1–2 Gamba OsakaJ1 League · UTC
  2. Avispa Fukuoka 2–1 Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League · UTC
  3. Avispa Fukuoka 0–1 Yokohama FCEmperor Cup · UTC
  4. Avispa Fukuoka 0–1 Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League · UTC
  5. Avispa Fukuoka 1–1 Mito HollyhockJ1 League · UTC

Away matches

V-varen Nagasaki

LLDLW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
2 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency
0/5 0%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%

V-varen Nagasaki scored 2 and conceded 6 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Urawa 1–0 V-varen NagasakiJ1 League · UTC
  2. Kashima 2–0 V-varen NagasakiJ1 League · UTC
  3. JEF United Chiba 1–1 V-varen NagasakiJ1 League · UTC
  4. Gainare Tottori 2–0 V-varen NagasakiJ-League Cup · UTC
  5. Kochi United 0–1 V-varen NagasakiJ-League Cup · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Avispa Fukuoka

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
2.10 / 1.81
xG per match, for / against
1.05 / 0.91
Goals on this same sample
3 / 3

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka xG for / against Avispa Fukuoka: 0.76 / 0.60 Statistics synced: team 05 Nov 2026 01:35 UTC; opponent 05 Nov 2026 01:35 UTC.
  2. Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama xG for / against Avispa Fukuoka: 1.34 / 1.21 Statistics synced: team 24 Oct 2026 06:25 UTC; opponent 24 Oct 2026 06:25 UTC.

Away matches

V-varen Nagasaki

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
1.72 / 4.20
xG per match, for / against
0.86 / 2.10
Goals on this same sample
1 / 3

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki xG for / against V-varen Nagasaki: 1.10 / 1.41 Statistics synced: team 31 Oct 2026 06:15 UTC; opponent 31 Oct 2026 06:15 UTC.
  2. JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki xG for / against V-varen Nagasaki: 0.62 / 2.79 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 09:55 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 09:55 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Avispa Fukuoka

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

V-varen Nagasaki

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Avispa Fukuoka

6 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 01 Nov 2026 05:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

J-League
Position 20
Points / played
7 / 13

Table source synced 07 Nov 2026 00:18 UTC.

V-varen Nagasaki

6 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 01 Nov 2026 05:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

J-League
Position 15
Points / played
12 / 13

Table source synced 07 Nov 2026 00:18 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 V-varen NagasakiJ1 League · UTC
  2. V-varen Nagasaki 1–0 Avispa FukuokaJ1 League · UTC
  3. Avispa Fukuoka 2–0 V-varen NagasakiEmperor Cup · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 07 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1556131
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
14ee860828beaa1a2605b404e2d8ad715ca59490f6157612068b3f7b69186002