J1 League · 08 Nov 2026

JEF United Chiba vs Mito HollyhockMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.

Recorded match result

Result pending — kickoff has not passed.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
50%
Draw
50%
Away win
0%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 08 Nov 2026 00:17 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 07 Nov 2026 20:59 UTC; synced 08 Nov 2026 00:17 UTC. Saved 08 Nov 2026 00:21 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.99
Without margin
46.77%
Provider estimate
50.00%
Provider − market
+3.23 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.4
Without margin
27.37%
Provider estimate
50.00%
Provider − market
+22.63 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
3.6
Without margin
25.85%
Provider estimate
0.00%
Provider − market
-25.85 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.44%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

JEF United Chiba

WDDWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 3
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

JEF United Chiba scored 7 and conceded 3 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. JEF United Chiba 3–0 Avispa FukuokaJ1 League · UTC
  2. JEF United Chiba 0–0 Yokohama F. MarinosJ1 League · UTC
  3. JEF United Chiba 1–1 V-varen NagasakiJ1 League · UTC
  4. JEF United Chiba 2–0 Gamba OsakaJ1 League · UTC
  5. JEF United Chiba 1–2 Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League · UTC

Away matches

Mito Hollyhock

LLWLD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 11
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%

Mito Hollyhock scored 8 and conceded 11 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. FC Tokyo 6–0 Mito HollyhockJ1 League · UTC
  2. Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Mito HollyhockJ1 League · UTC
  3. Fukushima United 0–7 Mito HollyhockJ-League Cup · UTC
  4. Yokohama F. Marinos 2–0 Mito HollyhockJ1 League · UTC
  5. Avispa Fukuoka 1–1 Mito HollyhockJ1 League · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

JEF United Chiba

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
5.75 / 1.49
xG per match, for / against
1.92 / 0.50
Goals on this same sample
4 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka xG for / against JEF United Chiba: 1.86 / 0.21 Statistics synced: team 05 Nov 2026 00:55 UTC; opponent 05 Nov 2026 00:55 UTC.
  2. JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos xG for / against JEF United Chiba: 1.10 / 0.66 Statistics synced: team 31 Oct 2026 05:35 UTC; opponent 31 Oct 2026 05:35 UTC.
  3. JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki xG for / against JEF United Chiba: 2.79 / 0.62 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 09:55 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 09:55 UTC.

Away matches

Mito Hollyhock

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
1.34 / 3.81
xG per match, for / against
0.67 / 1.90
Goals on this same sample
0 / 8

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock xG for / against Mito Hollyhock: 0.80 / 2.59 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 15:25 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 15:25 UTC.
  2. Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock xG for / against Mito Hollyhock: 0.54 / 1.22 Statistics synced: team 05 Nov 2026 01:35 UTC; opponent 05 Nov 2026 01:35 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

JEF United Chiba

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Mito Hollyhock

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

JEF United Chiba

7.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 01 Nov 2026 05:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

J-League
Position 18
Points / played
10 / 13

Table source synced 08 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC.

Mito Hollyhock

8.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 31 Oct 2026 05:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

J-League
Position 19
Points / played
9 / 13

Table source synced 08 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Mito Hollyhock 0–1 JEF United ChibaJ2 League · UTC
  2. JEF United Chiba 2–1 Mito HollyhockJ2 League · UTC
  3. JEF United Chiba 4–0 Mito HollyhockJ2 League · UTC
  4. Mito Hollyhock 0–0 JEF United ChibaJ2 League · UTC
  5. JEF United Chiba 1–1 Mito HollyhockJ2 League · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 08 Nov 2026 00:21 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1556132
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
465df9283e890a0e7df15d8c97b8ab3feea22b2975c429ca9ed5264f73214e89