Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 0–1· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 17 Oct 2026 21:51 UTC. Source synced 17 Oct 2026 21:49 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 10 Oct 2026 16:39 UTC. A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Newcastle
WDWDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
5/5 100%
BTTS frequency
5/5 100%
Newcastle scored 10 and conceded 9 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Newcastle 2–1 Hull CityPremier League · UTC
Newcastle 2–2 BournemouthPremier League · UTC
Newcastle 3–2 West BromLeague Cup · UTC
Newcastle 2–2 LiverpoolPremier League · UTC
Newcastle 1–2 Bayer LeverkusenFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Away matches
Aston Villa
WWWWD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
12 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Aston Villa scored 12 and conceded 6 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Sevilla 1–3 Aston VillaFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Tottenham 2–3 Aston VillaPremier League · UTC
Coventry 1–3 Aston VillaLeague Cup · UTC
Club Brugge KV 2–3 Aston VillaUEFA Champions League · UTC
Hull City 0–0 Aston VillaPremier League · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Newcastle
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
2.86 / 3.82
xG per match, for / against
1.43 / 1.91
Goals on this same sample
4 / 3
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Newcastle vs Hull CityxG for / against Newcastle: 1.44 / 1.59
Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 00:25 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 00:25 UTC.
Newcastle vs LiverpoolxG for / against Newcastle: 1.42 / 2.23
Statistics synced: team 24 Aug 2026 08:21 UTC; opponent 24 Aug 2026 08:21 UTC.
Away matches
Aston Villa
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
1.16 / 1.56
xG per match, for / against
1.16 / 1.56
Goals on this same sample
3 / 2
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Tottenham vs Aston VillaxG for / against Aston Villa: 1.16 / 1.56
Statistics synced: team 04 Oct 2026 02:35 UTC; opponent 04 Oct 2026 02:35 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Newcastle
Reported absences
J. RamseyQuestionable · Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 12:55 UTC.
A. ElangaMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 12:55 UTC.
V. LivramentoQuestionable · Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 12:55 UTC.
E. JaouenMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 12:55 UTC.
B. ToureQuestionable · Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 12:55 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Aston Villa
Reported absences
R. BarkleyQuestionable · Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 12:55 UTC.
I. MaatsenMissing Fixture · Ankle Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 12:55 UTC.
M. RuggeriMissing Fixture · Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 12:55 UTC.
A. OnanaMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 12:55 UTC.
G. HemmingsMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 12:55 UTC.
I. MbayeQuestionable · Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 12:55 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Newcastle
4.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 12 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Premier League
Position 11
Points / played
8 / 6
Table source synced 16 Oct 2026 16:17 UTC.
Aston Villa
2.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 14 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Premier League
Position 16
Points / played
5 / 6
Table source synced 16 Oct 2026 16:17 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Aston Villa 1–3 NewcastleFA Cup · UTC
Newcastle 0–2 Aston VillaPremier League · UTC
Aston Villa 0–0 NewcastlePremier League · UTC
Aston Villa 4–1 NewcastlePremier League · UTC
Newcastle 3–0 Aston VillaPremier League · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 16 Oct 2026 16:30 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.