Liga Nacional · 15 Oct 2026

Guastatoya vs Antigua GFCMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 1–1 · regulation time

Result record v2 · recorded 15 Oct 2026 12:20 UTC. Source synced 15 Oct 2026 12:19 UTC.

Result changes (1)
  1. v1 · 1H Initial source observation · 15 Oct 2026 01:30 UTC Source synced 15 Oct 2026 01:30 UTC · source kickoff 15 Oct 2026 01:00 UTC
  2. v2 · FT · 1–1 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 15 Oct 2026 12:20 UTC Source synced 15 Oct 2026 12:19 UTC · source kickoff 15 Oct 2026 01:00 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Draw. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:07 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 14 Oct 2026 20:28 UTC; synced 15 Oct 2026 00:07 UTC. Saved 15 Oct 2026 00:11 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
2.16
Without margin
41.28%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+3.72 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
2.66
Without margin
33.52%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+11.48 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
3.54
Without margin
25.19%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-15.19 pp

Raw implied probability total: 112.14%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Guastatoya

WWWLW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%

Guastatoya scored 8 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Guastatoya 2–1 AuroraLiga Nacional · UTC
  2. Guastatoya 2–1 Deportivo San PedroLiga Nacional · UTC
  3. Guastatoya 2–1 XelajúLiga Nacional · UTC
  4. Guastatoya 1–2 MarquenseLiga Nacional · UTC
  5. Guastatoya 1–0 MunicipalLiga Nacional · UTC

Away matches

Antigua GFC

LLLWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 13
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Antigua GFC scored 7 and conceded 13 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Marquense 2–1 Antigua GFCLiga Nacional · UTC
  2. Mixco 3–1 Antigua GFCLiga Nacional · UTC
  3. Xelajú 4–0 Antigua GFCLiga Nacional · UTC
  4. Malacateco 0–2 Antigua GFCLiga Nacional · UTC
  5. Deportivo San Pedro 4–3 Antigua GFCLiga Nacional · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Guastatoya

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

Antigua GFC

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Guastatoya

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Antigua GFC

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Guastatoya

4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 11 Oct 2026 01:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

League position and points: N/A.

Antigua GFC

3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 12 Oct 2026 01:10 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

League position and points: N/A.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Antigua GFC 2–0 GuastatoyaLiga Nacional · UTC
  2. Guastatoya 3–0 Antigua GFCLiga Nacional · UTC
  3. Antigua GFC 2–0 GuastatoyaLiga Nacional · UTC
  4. Guastatoya 0–3 Antigua GFCLiga Nacional · UTC
  5. Antigua GFC 3–1 GuastatoyaLiga Nacional · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 15 Oct 2026 00:11 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1559669
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
1582414d9490629b7e76b1d2d41156bdfd27176c15ba47bd444e4513d194bf3d