Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 1–1· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 21 Oct 2026 05:31 UTC. Source synced 20 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Gillingham
WDLWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Gillingham scored 10 and conceded 7 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Gillingham 4–3 Brighton U21EFL Trophy · UTC
Gillingham 0–0 Newport CountyLeague Two · UTC
Gillingham 1–4 Cambridge UnitedEFL Trophy · UTC
Gillingham 3–0 Bristol RoversLeague Two · UTC
Gillingham 2–0 TranmereLeague Two · UTC
Away matches
Port Vale
LLLLL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
1 / 11
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%
Port Vale scored 1 and conceded 11 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Walsall 2–0 Port ValeLeague Two · UTC
Salford City 1–0 Port ValeLeague Two · UTC
Swindon Town 3–1 Port ValeLeague Two · UTC
Oldham 2–0 Port ValeLeague Two · UTC
Wolves 3–0 Port ValeLeague Cup · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Gillingham
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
2.60 / 2.13
xG per match, for / against
1.30 / 1.07
Goals on this same sample
3 / 0
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Gillingham vs Newport CountyxG for / against Gillingham: 0.31 / 1.25
Statistics synced: team 13 Oct 2026 04:35 UTC; opponent 13 Oct 2026 04:35 UTC.
Gillingham vs Bristol RoversxG for / against Gillingham: 2.29 / 0.88
Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 00:45 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 00:45 UTC.
Away matches
Port Vale
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
0.94 / 1.95
xG per match, for / against
0.94 / 1.95
Goals on this same sample
0 / 2
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Walsall vs Port ValexG for / against Port Vale: 0.94 / 1.95
Statistics synced: team 04 Oct 2026 02:36 UTC; opponent 04 Oct 2026 02:36 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Gillingham
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Port Vale
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Gillingham
3.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 17 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League Two
Position 6
Points / played
16 / 11
Table source synced 20 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
Port Vale
3.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 17 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League Two
Position 21
Points / played
11 / 9
Table source synced 20 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 20 Oct 2026 00:41 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.