Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 1–4· regulation time
Result record v2 · recorded 04 Oct 2026 14:10 UTC. Source synced 04 Oct 2026 14:09 UTC.
Result changes (1)
v1 · NS
Initial source observation · 04 Oct 2026 10:31 UTC
Source synced 04 Oct 2026 10:29 UTC · source kickoff 04 Oct 2026 08:45 UTC
v2 · FT · 1–4
Source status, score or kickoff changed · 04 Oct 2026 14:10 UTC
Source synced 04 Oct 2026 14:09 UTC · source kickoff 04 Oct 2026 08:45 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 1.215· lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Away win.
Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 04 Oct 2026 00:08 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Paloma
WWDLD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
11 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
5/5 100%
BTTS frequency
5/5 100%
Paloma scored 11 and conceded 9 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Paloma 3–1 Teutonia OttensenOberliga - Hamburg · UTC
Paloma 3–2 SaselOberliga - Hamburg · UTC
Paloma 2–2 PinnebergOberliga - Hamburg · UTC
Paloma 1–2 Vorwärts-Wacker 04Oberliga - Hamburg · UTC
Paloma 2–2 SaselOberliga - Hamburg · UTC
Away matches
ETSV Hamburg
WDDLW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%
ETSV Hamburg scored 8 and conceded 5 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Concordia 1–4 ETSV HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · UTC
Tus Dassendorf 1–1 ETSV HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · UTC
HEBC 0–0 ETSV HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · UTC
Paloma 3–2 ETSV HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · UTC
Halstenbek-Rellingen 0–1 ETSV HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Paloma
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Away matches
ETSV Hamburg
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Paloma
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
ETSV Hamburg
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Paloma
6.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 27 Sep 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
ETSV Hamburg
6.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 27 Sep 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Paloma 3–2 ETSV HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · UTC
ETSV Hamburg 1–1 PalomaOberliga - Hamburg · UTC
ETSV Hamburg 2–3 PalomaOberliga - Hamburg · UTC
Paloma 4–2 ETSV HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · UTC
Paloma 0–1 ETSV HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 04 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.