Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 3–2· regulation time
Result record v2 · recorded 04 Oct 2026 18:20 UTC. Source synced 04 Oct 2026 18:19 UTC.
Result changes (1)
v1 · 1H
Initial source observation · 04 Oct 2026 14:21 UTC
Source synced 04 Oct 2026 14:21 UTC · source kickoff 04 Oct 2026 14:15 UTC
v2 · FT · 3–2
Source status, score or kickoff changed · 04 Oct 2026 18:20 UTC
Source synced 04 Oct 2026 18:19 UTC · source kickoff 04 Oct 2026 14:15 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Sporting Gijon
LLWDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
3 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
1/5 20%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%
Sporting Gijon scored 3 and conceded 7 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Sporting Gijon 0–1 EldenseSegunda División · UTC
Sporting Gijon 0–2 GironaSegunda División · UTC
Sporting Gijon 1–0 BurgosSegunda División · UTC
Sporting Gijon 0–0 SabadellSegunda División · UTC
Sporting Gijon 2–4 ValladolidFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Away matches
Celta de Vigo II
LWDWD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
3 / 2
Over 2.5 frequency
0/5 0%
BTTS frequency
0/5 0%
Celta de Vigo II scored 3 and conceded 2 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 0 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Almeria 2–0 Celta de Vigo IISegunda División · UTC
AD Ceuta FC 0–2 Celta de Vigo IISegunda División · UTC
Cadiz 0–0 Celta de Vigo IISegunda División · UTC
Vizela 0–1 Celta de Vigo IIFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Ponferradina 0–0 Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Play Offs · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Sporting Gijon
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
0.71 / 0.26
xG per match, for / against
0.71 / 0.26
Goals on this same sample
0 / 1
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Sporting Gijon vs EldensexG for / against Sporting Gijon: 0.71 / 0.26
Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 03:10 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 03:10 UTC.
Away matches
Celta de Vigo II
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
0.65 / 2.40
xG per match, for / against
0.65 / 2.40
Goals on this same sample
0 / 2
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Almeria vs Celta de Vigo IIxG for / against Celta de Vigo II: 0.65 / 2.40
Statistics synced: team 30 Sep 2026 14:07 UTC; opponent 30 Sep 2026 14:07 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Sporting Gijon
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Celta de Vigo II
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Sporting Gijon
6.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 27 Sep 2026 19:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Segunda
Position 12
Points / played
10 / 7
Table source synced 04 Oct 2026 01:18 UTC.
Celta de Vigo II
7.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 26 Sep 2026 16:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Segunda
Position 16
Points / played
8 / 7
Table source synced 04 Oct 2026 01:18 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 04 Oct 2026 02:01 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.