Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 1–0· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 10 Oct 2026 23:51 UTC. Source synced 10 Oct 2026 23:49 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 03 Oct 2026 19:08 UTC. A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Real Madrid
WWWWD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
16 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
5/5 100%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Real Madrid scored 16 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga · UTC
Real Madrid 2–1 InterUEFA Champions League · UTC
Real Madrid 4–0 MalagaLa Liga · UTC
Real Madrid 4–1 Real SociedadLa Liga · UTC
Real Madrid 2–2 FiorentinaFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Away matches
Villarreal
WLLDD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
9 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Villarreal scored 9 and conceded 9 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Malaga 1–3 VillarrealLa Liga · UTC
Borussia Dortmund 3–2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League · UTC
Alaves 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga · UTC
Atletico Madrid 2–2 VillarrealLa Liga · UTC
Racing Santander 2–2 VillarrealLa Liga · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Real Madrid
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
5.76 / 1.78
xG per match, for / against
2.88 / 0.89
Goals on this same sample
8 / 2
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Real Madrid vs Rayo VallecanoxG for / against Real Madrid: 2.62 / 1.21
Statistics synced: team 28 Sep 2026 18:45 UTC; opponent 28 Sep 2026 18:45 UTC.
Real Madrid vs Real SociedadxG for / against Real Madrid: 3.14 / 0.57
Statistics synced: team 26 Aug 2026 21:13 UTC; opponent 26 Aug 2026 21:13 UTC.
Away matches
Villarreal
Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
8.62 / 4.10
xG per match, for / against
2.16 / 1.03
Goals on this same sample
7 / 6
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Malaga vs VillarrealxG for / against Villarreal: 3.33 / 0.63
Statistics synced: team 01 Oct 2026 20:37 UTC; opponent 01 Oct 2026 20:37 UTC.
Alaves vs VillarrealxG for / against Villarreal: 1.28 / 0.81
Statistics synced: team 28 Aug 2026 21:32 UTC; opponent 28 Aug 2026 21:32 UTC.
Atletico Madrid vs VillarrealxG for / against Villarreal: 3.14 / 0.65
Statistics synced: team 23 Aug 2026 17:14 UTC; opponent 23 Aug 2026 17:14 UTC.
Racing Santander vs VillarrealxG for / against Villarreal: 0.87 / 2.01
Statistics synced: team 17 Aug 2026 08:17 UTC; opponent 17 Aug 2026 08:17 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Real Madrid
Reported absences
Eder MilitaoMissing Fixture · Hamstring Injury
Record synced 10 Oct 2026 02:25 UTC.
F. MendyMissing Fixture · Hip Injury
Record synced 10 Oct 2026 02:25 UTC.
RodrygoMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 10 Oct 2026 02:25 UTC.
R. AsencioMissing Fixture · Broken Leg
Record synced 10 Oct 2026 02:25 UTC.
D. HuijsenMissing Fixture · Red Card
Record synced 10 Oct 2026 02:25 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Villarreal
Reported absences
T. BuchananMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury
Record synced 10 Oct 2026 02:25 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Real Madrid
20.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 14:15 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
La Liga
Position 4
Points / played
15 / 7
Table source synced 10 Oct 2026 05:19 UTC.
Villarreal
20.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 16:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
La Liga
Position 9
Points / played
8 / 7
Table source synced 10 Oct 2026 05:19 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Villarreal 0–2 Real MadridLa Liga · UTC
Real Madrid 3–1 VillarrealLa Liga · UTC
Villarreal 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga · UTC
Real Madrid 2–0 VillarrealLa Liga · UTC
Villarreal 4–4 Real MadridLa Liga · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 10 Oct 2026 06:00 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.