La Liga · 24 Oct 2026

Valencia vs VillarrealMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 1–2 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 24 Oct 2026 21:21 UTC. Source synced 24 Oct 2026 21:19 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 17 Oct 2026 16:38 UTC. A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Valencia

DLLLD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
2 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%

Valencia scored 2 and conceded 9 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Valencia 0–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga · UTC
  2. Valencia 2–3 Real SociedadLa Liga · UTC
  3. Valencia 0–5 BarcelonaLa Liga · UTC
  4. Valencia 0–1 Real BetisLa Liga · UTC
  5. Valencia 0–0 Celta VigoLa Liga · UTC

Away matches

Villarreal

LLWLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 10
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Villarreal scored 8 and conceded 10 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Liverpool 4–3 VillarrealUEFA Champions League · UTC
  2. Real Madrid 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga · UTC
  3. Malaga 1–3 VillarrealLa Liga · UTC
  4. Borussia Dortmund 3–2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League · UTC
  5. Alaves 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Valencia

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
4.13 / 3.94
xG per match, for / against
1.38 / 1.31
Goals on this same sample
2 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Valencia vs Athletic Club xG for / against Valencia: 1.41 / 0.59 Statistics synced: team 21 Oct 2026 18:25 UTC; opponent 21 Oct 2026 18:25 UTC.
  2. Valencia vs Real Sociedad xG for / against Valencia: 1.55 / 2.65 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 06:55 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 06:55 UTC.
  3. Valencia vs Real Betis xG for / against Valencia: 1.17 / 0.70 Statistics synced: team 25 Aug 2026 21:14 UTC; opponent 25 Aug 2026 21:14 UTC.

Away matches

Villarreal

Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
6.82 / 5.28
xG per match, for / against
1.71 / 1.32
Goals on this same sample
6 / 7

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Liverpool vs Villarreal xG for / against Villarreal: 1.62 / 2.41 Statistics synced: team 21 Oct 2026 19:25 UTC; opponent 21 Oct 2026 19:25 UTC.
  2. Real Madrid vs Villarreal xG for / against Villarreal: 0.59 / 1.43 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 08:25 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 08:25 UTC.
  3. Malaga vs Villarreal xG for / against Villarreal: 3.33 / 0.63 Statistics synced: team 01 Oct 2026 20:37 UTC; opponent 01 Oct 2026 20:37 UTC.
  4. Alaves vs Villarreal xG for / against Villarreal: 1.28 / 0.81 Statistics synced: team 28 Aug 2026 21:32 UTC; opponent 28 Aug 2026 21:32 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Valencia

Reported absences

  • S. CanosMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 23 Oct 2026 12:44 UTC.
  • U. SadiqMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 23 Oct 2026 12:44 UTC.
  • D. FoulquierQuestionable · Knee Injury Record synced 23 Oct 2026 12:44 UTC.
  • D. LopezMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 23 Oct 2026 12:44 UTC.
  • J. CopeteQuestionable · Knee Injury Record synced 23 Oct 2026 12:44 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Villarreal

Reported absences

  • N. PepeQuestionable · Eye injury Record synced 23 Oct 2026 12:44 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Valencia

6.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 17 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Primera División
Position 19
Points / played
6 / 9

Table source synced 23 Oct 2026 16:14 UTC.

Villarreal

3.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 20 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Primera División
Position 12
Points / played
9 / 9

Table source synced 23 Oct 2026 16:14 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Villarreal 2–1 ValenciaLa Liga · UTC
  2. Valencia 0–2 VillarrealLa Liga · UTC
  3. Villarreal 1–1 ValenciaLa Liga · UTC
  4. Valencia 1–1 VillarrealLa Liga · UTC
  5. Villarreal 1–0 ValenciaLa Liga · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 23 Oct 2026 16:41 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1570432
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
5169fa714fa9a7a25622da77e40b0a03ff5e7a7f0047bccd783903ae21b7b8cf