Home win
- Decimal odds
- 2.12
- Without margin
- 45.74%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -35.74 pp
La Liga · 01 Nov 2026
Athletic Club vs Real SociedadMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Awaiting confirmed result.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 10%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 45%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 31 Oct 2026 21:48 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 31 Oct 2026 17:50 UTC; synced 31 Oct 2026 21:48 UTC. Saved 01 Nov 2026 04:10 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 3.72
- Without margin
- 26.07%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +18.93 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 3.44
- Without margin
- 28.19%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +16.81 pp
Raw implied probability total: 103.12%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Athletic Club
WDDWL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 9 / 4
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 3/5 60%
- BTTS frequency
- 2/5 40%
Athletic Club scored 9 and conceded 4 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Athletic Club 4–0 GetafeLa Liga · UTC
- Athletic Club 0–0 AlavesLa Liga · UTC
- Athletic Club 1–1 ElcheLa Liga · UTC
- Athletic Club 3–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga · UTC
- Athletic Club 1–3 SevillaLa Liga · UTC
Away matches
Real Sociedad
WWDWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 18 / 7
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 4/5 80%
- BTTS frequency
- 4/5 80%
Real Sociedad scored 18 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Lillestrom 0–6 Real SociedadUEFA Europa League · UTC
- Malaga 2–5 Real SociedadLa Liga · UTC
- Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real SociedadUEFA Europa League · UTC
- Valencia 2–3 Real SociedadLa Liga · UTC
- Elche 2–3 Real SociedadLa Liga · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Athletic Club
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 2.36 / 0.46
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.18 / 0.23
- Goals on this same sample
- 4 / 0
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Athletic Club vs Getafe xG for / against Athletic Club: 0.74 / 0.41 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 09:25 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 09:25 UTC.
- Athletic Club vs Alaves xG for / against Athletic Club: 1.62 / 0.05 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 04:05 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 04:05 UTC.
Away matches
Real Sociedad
Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 8.31 / 7.00
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.08 / 1.75
- Goals on this same sample
- 15 / 5
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad xG for / against Real Sociedad: 2.46 / 2.29 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 23:35 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 23:35 UTC.
- Malaga vs Real Sociedad xG for / against Real Sociedad: 2.44 / 1.24 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 21:06 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 21:06 UTC.
- Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad xG for / against Real Sociedad: 0.76 / 1.92 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 22:35 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 22:35 UTC.
- Valencia vs Real Sociedad xG for / against Real Sociedad: 2.65 / 1.55 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 06:55 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 06:55 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Athletic Club
Reported absences
- I. Ruiz de GalarretaMissing Fixture · Hamstring Injury Record synced 01 Nov 2026 02:04 UTC.
- G. GuruzetaMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 01 Nov 2026 02:04 UTC.
- O. SancetQuestionable · Muscle Injury Record synced 01 Nov 2026 02:04 UTC.
- U. EgiluzMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 01 Nov 2026 02:04 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Real Sociedad
Reported absences
- A. OdriozolaMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 01 Nov 2026 02:04 UTC.
- A. ZakharyanMissing Fixture · Ankle Injury Record synced 01 Nov 2026 02:04 UTC.
- L. BeitiaMissing Fixture · Ankle Injury Record synced 01 Nov 2026 02:04 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Athletic Club
3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 29 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Primera División
- Position 7
- Points / played
- 12 / 9
Table source synced 01 Nov 2026 03:18 UTC.
Real Sociedad
7.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 25 Oct 2026 17:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- Primera División
- Position 5
- Points / played
- 19 / 10
Table source synced 01 Nov 2026 03:18 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs · UTC
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Athletic ClubCopa del Rey · UTC
- Athletic Club 0–1 Real SociedadCopa del Rey · UTC
- Athletic Club 1–1 Real SociedadLa Liga · UTC
- Real Sociedad 3–2 Athletic ClubLa Liga · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 01 Nov 2026 04:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1570433
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 5c70c899852210ee00985d5e4d46f2877b4ef626d327ef72ad5e3bfdd1f0395d