Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 2–3· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 10 Oct 2026 16:10 UTC. Source synced 10 Oct 2026 16:09 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 03 Oct 2026 17:09 UTC. A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
1899 Hoffenheim
WLWWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
11 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%
1899 Hoffenheim scored 11 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga · UTC
1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga · UTC
1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 Karlsruher SCFriendlies Clubs · UTC
1899 Hoffenheim 3–1 Holstein KielFriendlies Clubs · UTC
1899 Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder BremenBundesliga · UTC
Away matches
Hamburger SV
LLWWL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 11
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Hamburger SV scored 7 and conceded 11 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
RB Leipzig 5–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga · UTC
Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga · UTC
Verl 0–3 Hamburger SVDFB Pokal · UTC
Toulouse 1–2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Rapid Vienna 3–2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
1899 Hoffenheim
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
1.44 / 1.06
xG per match, for / against
1.44 / 1.06
Goals on this same sample
1 / 0
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder BremenxG for / against 1899 Hoffenheim: 1.44 / 1.06
Statistics synced: team 09 May 2026 17:25 UTC; opponent 09 May 2026 17:25 UTC.
Away matches
Hamburger SV
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
1.10 / 2.43
xG per match, for / against
1.10 / 2.43
Goals on this same sample
0 / 5
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SVxG for / against Hamburger SV: 1.10 / 2.43
Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 05:10 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 05:10 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
1899 Hoffenheim
Reported absences
BernardoQuestionable · Achilles Tendon Injury
Record synced 09 Oct 2026 12:34 UTC.
A. HajdariQuestionable · Muscle Injury
Record synced 09 Oct 2026 12:34 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Hamburger SV
Reported absences
P. DakaMissing Fixture · Thigh Injury
Record synced 09 Oct 2026 12:34 UTC.
M. VuskovicMissing Fixture · Doping
Record synced 09 Oct 2026 12:34 UTC.
A. GronbaekMissing Fixture · Thigh Injury
Record synced 09 Oct 2026 12:34 UTC.
Z. El OuahdiQuestionable · Illness
Record synced 09 Oct 2026 12:34 UTC.
A. Rossing-LelesiitQuestionable · Ankle Injury
Record synced 09 Oct 2026 12:34 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
1899 Hoffenheim
19.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 17:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Bundesliga
Position 14
Points / played
3 / 4
Table source synced 09 Oct 2026 13:14 UTC.
Hamburger SV
6 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 04 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Bundesliga
Position 16
Points / played
3 / 4
Table source synced 09 Oct 2026 13:14 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Hamburger SV 1–2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · UTC
1899 Hoffenheim 4–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 09 Oct 2026 13:31 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.