Bundesliga · 11 Oct 2026

1. FC Köln vs Borussia MönchengladbachMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 2–1 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 11 Oct 2026 17:10 UTC. Source synced 11 Oct 2026 17:09 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 04 Oct 2026 13:39 UTC. A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

1. FC Köln

DWWDL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
9 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
5/5 100%

1. FC Köln scored 9 and conceded 9 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. 1. FC Köln 1–1 Werder BremenBundesliga · UTC
  2. 1. FC Köln 3–2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga · UTC
  3. 1. FC Köln 2–1 Real SociedadFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  4. 1. FC Köln 2–2 Hertha BSCFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  5. 1. FC Köln 1–3 1. FC HeidenheimBundesliga · UTC

Away matches

Borussia Mönchengladbach

DLLWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
14 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%

Borussia Mönchengladbach scored 14 and conceded 9 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. FC St. Pauli 1–1 Borussia MönchengladbachFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  2. SC Freiburg 5–0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga · UTC
  3. RB Leipzig 3–0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga · UTC
  4. Schott Mainz 0–5 Borussia MönchengladbachDFB Pokal · UTC
  5. SSVg Velbert 0–8 Borussia MönchengladbachFriendlies Clubs · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

1. FC Köln

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
1.16 / 1.37
xG per match, for / against
1.16 / 1.37
Goals on this same sample
1 / 3

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim xG for / against 1. FC Köln: 1.16 / 1.37 Statistics synced: team 10 May 2026 18:26 UTC; opponent 10 May 2026 18:26 UTC.

Away matches

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

1. FC Köln

Reported absences

  • A. Castro-MontesMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 10 Oct 2026 08:35 UTC.
  • R. AcheMissing Fixture · Thigh Injury Record synced 10 Oct 2026 08:35 UTC.
  • T. HubersMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 10 Oct 2026 08:35 UTC.
  • T. DallingaMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 10 Oct 2026 08:35 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Reported absences

  • F. HonoratMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 10 Oct 2026 08:35 UTC.
  • T. KleindienstQuestionable · Injury Record synced 10 Oct 2026 08:35 UTC.
  • K. ItakuraQuestionable · Ankle Injury Record synced 10 Oct 2026 08:35 UTC.
  • N. KuhnMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 10 Oct 2026 08:35 UTC.
  • E. LeopoldMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 10 Oct 2026 08:35 UTC.
  • J. CastropMissing Fixture · Shoulder Injury Record synced 10 Oct 2026 08:35 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

1. FC Köln

8.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 12:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Bundesliga
Position 13
Points / played
4 / 4

Table source synced 10 Oct 2026 13:17 UTC.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Bundesliga
Position 18
Points / played
0 / 4

Table source synced 10 Oct 2026 13:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. 1. FC Köln 3–3 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga · UTC
  2. Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga · UTC
  3. Borussia Monchengladbach 3–3 1. FC KölnBundesliga · UTC
  4. 1. FC Köln 3–1 Borussia MonchengladbachBundesliga · UTC
  5. 1. FC Köln 0–0 Borussia MonchengladbachBundesliga · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 10 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1575183
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
aac4c92e0815acd7933681dc0a7bf6a5f3d307d29fba267cd8695e9624b97dcc