Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 2–1· regulation time
Result record v2 · recorded 19 Oct 2026 06:01 UTC. Source synced 18 Oct 2026 20:44 UTC.
Result changes (1)
v1 · 1H
Initial source observation · 18 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC
Source synced 18 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC · source kickoff 18 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC
v2 · FT · 2–1
Source status, score or kickoff changed · 19 Oct 2026 06:01 UTC
Source synced 18 Oct 2026 20:44 UTC · source kickoff 18 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 11 Oct 2026 13:37 UTC. A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Bayer Leverkusen
WWWWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
13 / 1
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%
Bayer Leverkusen scored 13 and conceded 1 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga · UTC
Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 CeljeUEFA Europa League · UTC
Bayer Leverkusen 4–0 Union BerlinBundesliga · UTC
Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SevillaFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Bayer Leverkusen 3–0 Rot-Weiß EssenFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Away matches
SC Freiburg
DWWWL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
13 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
SC Freiburg scored 13 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 SC FreiburgBundesliga · UTC
SC Paderborn 07 0–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga · UTC
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–5 SC FreiburgDFB Pokal · UTC
Motherwell 1–3 SC FreiburgUEFA Europa Conference League · UTC
Hamburger SV 3–2 SC FreiburgBundesliga · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Bayer Leverkusen
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
4.20 / 1.87
xG per match, for / against
2.10 / 0.94
Goals on this same sample
4 / 0
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Bayer Leverkusen vs RB LeipzigxG for / against Bayer Leverkusen: 2.27 / 0.97
Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 01:14 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 01:14 UTC.
Bayer Leverkusen vs CeljexG for / against Bayer Leverkusen: 1.93 / 0.90
Statistics synced: team 01 Oct 2026 15:47 UTC; opponent 01 Oct 2026 15:47 UTC.
Away matches
SC Freiburg
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
3.60 / 3.81
xG per match, for / against
1.80 / 1.91
Goals on this same sample
4 / 5
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC FreiburgxG for / against SC Freiburg: 3.09 / 2.18
Statistics synced: team 04 Oct 2026 08:25 UTC; opponent 04 Oct 2026 08:25 UTC.
Hamburger SV vs SC FreiburgxG for / against SC Freiburg: 0.51 / 1.63
Statistics synced: team 10 May 2026 15:55 UTC; opponent 10 May 2026 15:55 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Bayer Leverkusen
Reported absences
M. TerrierMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury
Record synced 17 Oct 2026 08:55 UTC.
G. DoueMissing Fixture · Calf Injury
Record synced 17 Oct 2026 08:55 UTC.
E. Ben SeghirMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury
Record synced 17 Oct 2026 08:55 UTC.
M. CulbreathQuestionable · Foot Injury
Record synced 17 Oct 2026 08:55 UTC.
K. EichhornMissing Fixture · Illness
Record synced 17 Oct 2026 08:55 UTC.
C. KofaneMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury
Record synced 17 Oct 2026 08:55 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
SC Freiburg
Reported absences
Y. SuzukiMissing Fixture · Red Card
Record synced 17 Oct 2026 08:55 UTC.
B. YilmazQuestionable · Lacking Match Fitness
Record synced 17 Oct 2026 08:55 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
2.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 15 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Bundesliga
Position 4
Points / played
10 / 5
Table source synced 17 Oct 2026 13:14 UTC.
SC Freiburg
2.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 15 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Bundesliga
Position 1
Points / played
13 / 5
Table source synced 17 Oct 2026 13:14 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
SC Freiburg 3–3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga · UTC
Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 SC FreiburgBundesliga · UTC
SC Freiburg 2–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga · UTC
Bayer Leverkusen 5–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga · UTC
SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 17 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.