Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 0–0· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 17 Oct 2026 23:51 UTC. Source synced 17 Oct 2026 23:49 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 10 Oct 2026 13:37 UTC. A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Union Berlin
WLDLW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 12
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Union Berlin scored 10 and conceded 12 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Union Berlin 1–0 SV ElversbergBundesliga · UTC
Union Berlin 1–3 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga · UTC
Union Berlin 3–3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga · UTC
Union Berlin 2–4 IpswichFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Union Berlin 3–2 ArisFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Away matches
Borussia Dortmund
LWWWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
12 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Borussia Dortmund scored 12 and conceded 5 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Borussia DortmundUEFA Champions League · UTC
VfB Stuttgart 0–1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga · UTC
1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga · UTC
HEBC 0–5 Borussia DortmundDFB Pokal · UTC
Arsenal 2–3 Borussia DortmundEmirates Cup · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Union Berlin
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
1.13 / 0.24
xG per match, for / against
1.13 / 0.24
Goals on this same sample
1 / 0
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Union Berlin vs SV ElversbergxG for / against Union Berlin: 1.13 / 0.24
Statistics synced: team 14 Oct 2026 08:34 UTC; opponent 14 Oct 2026 08:34 UTC.
Away matches
Borussia Dortmund
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
2.19 / 2.07
xG per match, for / against
1.10 / 1.04
Goals on this same sample
1 / 1
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia DortmundxG for / against Borussia Dortmund: 0.85 / 1.20
Statistics synced: team 15 Oct 2026 19:05 UTC; opponent 15 Oct 2026 19:05 UTC.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia DortmundxG for / against Borussia Dortmund: 1.34 / 0.87
Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 07:15 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 07:15 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Union Berlin
Reported absences
S. NsokiQuestionable · Muscle Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
J. JuranovicQuestionable · Achilles Tendon Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
E. Latte LathQuestionable · Inactive
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
A. IlicMissing Fixture · Illness
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
A. MarkgrafMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Borussia Dortmund
Reported absences
E. CanMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
G. KonstanteliasMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
J. LermaMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury
Record synced 16 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Union Berlin
7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Bundesliga
Position 16
Points / played
4 / 5
Table source synced 16 Oct 2026 13:17 UTC.
Borussia Dortmund
2.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 14 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Bundesliga
Position 2
Points / played
13 / 5
Table source synced 16 Oct 2026 13:17 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Union Berlin 0–3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga · UTC
Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Union BerlinBundesliga · UTC
Borussia Dortmund 6–0 Union BerlinBundesliga · UTC
Union Berlin 2–1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga · UTC
Union Berlin 0–2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 16 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.