Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 2–3· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 24 Oct 2026 22:01 UTC. Source synced 24 Oct 2026 21:59 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 17 Oct 2026 13:39 UTC. A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
FSV Mainz 05
LLDWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%
FSV Mainz 05 scored 10 and conceded 8 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga · UTC
FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga · UTC
FSV Mainz 05 0–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga · UTC
FSV Mainz 05 2–1 BournemouthFriendlies Clubs · UTC
FSV Mainz 05 4–0 Paris FCFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Away matches
Werder Bremen
DDLWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
11 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Werder Bremen scored 11 and conceded 9 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder BremenBundesliga · UTC
1. FC Köln 1–1 Werder BremenBundesliga · UTC
SC Freiburg 4–1 Werder BremenBundesliga · UTC
Lüneburger SK Hansa 0–3 Werder BremenDFB Pokal · UTC
Energie Cottbus 2–4 Werder BremenFriendlies Clubs · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
FSV Mainz 05
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
3.13 / 2.09
xG per match, for / against
3.13 / 2.09
Goals on this same sample
3 / 4
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer LeverkusenxG for / against FSV Mainz 05: 3.13 / 2.09
Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 03:15 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 03:15 UTC.
Away matches
Werder Bremen
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
1.13 / 2.42
xG per match, for / against
1.13 / 2.42
Goals on this same sample
2 / 2
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder BremenxG for / against Werder Bremen: 1.13 / 2.42
Statistics synced: team 16 Oct 2026 20:19 UTC; opponent 16 Oct 2026 20:19 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
FSV Mainz 05
Reported absences
D. KohrMissing Fixture · Foot Injury
Record synced 23 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
SilasMissing Fixture · Broken shinbone
Record synced 23 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
R. ZentnerQuestionable · Hand Injury
Record synced 23 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
O. RuoppiQuestionable · Knee Injury
Record synced 23 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Werder Bremen
Reported absences
N. StarkQuestionable · Thigh Injury
Record synced 23 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
J. StageMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury
Record synced 23 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
F. AguMissing Fixture · Calf Injury
Record synced 23 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
S. LynenQuestionable · Hip Injury
Record synced 23 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
M. N'DiayeQuestionable · Groin Injury
Record synced 23 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
J. NjinmahMissing Fixture · Thigh Injury
Record synced 23 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
S. AlveroMissing Fixture · Calf Injury
Record synced 23 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
K. ToppMissing Fixture · Knee Injury
Record synced 23 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
S. MusahMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury
Record synced 23 Oct 2026 08:44 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
FSV Mainz 05
7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 17 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Bundesliga
Position 5
Points / played
10 / 6
Table source synced 23 Oct 2026 13:14 UTC.
Werder Bremen
7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 17 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Bundesliga
Position 8
Points / played
9 / 6
Table source synced 23 Oct 2026 13:14 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Werder Bremen 0–2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · UTC
FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Werder BremenBundesliga · UTC
Werder Bremen 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga · UTC
FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Werder BremenBundesliga · UTC
FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Werder BremenBundesliga · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 23 Oct 2026 13:31 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.