Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 0–1· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 24 Oct 2026 22:10 UTC. Source synced 24 Oct 2026 22:09 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Alverca
WLDDW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
6 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%
Alverca scored 6 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Alverca 1–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga · UTC
Alverca 1–2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga · UTC
Alverca 1–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga · UTC
Alverca 2–2 EstrelaPrimeira Liga · UTC
Alverca 1–0 Sporting CP BFriendlies Clubs · UTC
Away matches
Arouca
DDLWL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
3 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%
Arouca scored 3 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Sporting CP 2–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga · UTC
Estoril 0–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga · UTC
FC Porto 2–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga · UTC
Vitória SC 0–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga · UTC
Santa Clara 3–0 AroucaFriendlies Clubs · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Alverca
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
3.30 / 0.29
xG per match, for / against
3.30 / 0.29
Goals on this same sample
1 / 0
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Alverca vs Rio AvexG for / against Alverca: 3.30 / 0.29
Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 07:35 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 07:35 UTC.
Away matches
Arouca
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
0.54 / 3.00
xG per match, for / against
0.54 / 3.00
Goals on this same sample
0 / 2
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
FC Porto vs AroucaxG for / against Arouca: 0.54 / 3.00
Statistics synced: team 23 Aug 2026 21:43 UTC; opponent 23 Aug 2026 21:43 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Alverca
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Arouca
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Alverca
6.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Primeira Liga
Position 8
Points / played
11 / 8
Table source synced 24 Oct 2026 05:19 UTC.
Arouca
5.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 18:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Primeira Liga
Position 5
Points / played
14 / 8
Table source synced 24 Oct 2026 05:19 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 24 Oct 2026 05:41 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.