2. Bundesliga · 31 Oct 2026

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSCMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 0–3 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 31 Oct 2026 14:20 UTC. Source synced 31 Oct 2026 14:19 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Away win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
10%
Draw
45%
Away win
45%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 31 Oct 2026 01:01 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 30 Oct 2026 22:18 UTC; synced 31 Oct 2026 01:01 UTC. Saved 31 Oct 2026 01:10 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
2.83
Without margin
32.86%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-22.86 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.48
Without margin
26.72%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+18.28 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
2.3
Without margin
40.43%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+4.57 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.55%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern

WDWWD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 1
Over 2.5 frequency
1/5 20%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%

1. FC Kaiserslautern scored 7 and conceded 1 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2–0 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga · UTC
  2. 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1–1 SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  3. 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1–0 Eintracht Braunschweig2. Bundesliga · UTC
  4. 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3–0 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga · UTC
  5. 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0–0 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga · UTC

Away matches

Hertha BSC

WDDWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
9 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Hertha BSC scored 9 and conceded 4 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. SSV Jeddeloh 0–2 Hertha BSCDFB Pokal · UTC
  2. Holstein Kiel 0–0 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga · UTC
  3. FC Augsburg 2–2 Hertha BSCFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  4. Hertha Zehlendorf 1–3 Hertha BSCFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  5. Dynamo Dresden 1–2 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
5.27 / 2.51
xG per match, for / against
1.76 / 0.84
Goals on this same sample
3 / 0

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum xG for / against 1. FC Kaiserslautern: 2.34 / 0.59 Statistics synced: team 26 Oct 2026 22:35 UTC; opponent 26 Oct 2026 22:35 UTC.
  2. 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Eintracht Braunschweig xG for / against 1. FC Kaiserslautern: 1.88 / 1.17 Statistics synced: team 04 Oct 2026 01:45 UTC; opponent 04 Oct 2026 01:45 UTC.
  3. 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Karlsruher SC xG for / against 1. FC Kaiserslautern: 1.05 / 0.75 Statistics synced: team 16 Aug 2026 02:20 UTC; opponent 16 Aug 2026 02:20 UTC.

Away matches

Hertha BSC

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
7.43 / 2.31
xG per match, for / against
2.48 / 0.77
Goals on this same sample
4 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. SSV Jeddeloh vs Hertha BSC xG for / against Hertha BSC: 3.19 / 0.97 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 17:06 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 17:06 UTC.
  2. Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC xG for / against Hertha BSC: 1.66 / 0.51 Statistics synced: team 30 Oct 2026 16:54 UTC; opponent 30 Oct 2026 16:54 UTC.
  3. Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha BSC xG for / against Hertha BSC: 2.58 / 0.83 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 09:35 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 09:35 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

1. FC Kaiserslautern

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Hertha BSC

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

1. FC Kaiserslautern

2.7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 28 Oct 2026 19:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

2. Bundesliga
Position 3
Points / played
18 / 9

Table source synced 31 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Hertha BSC

2.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 28 Oct 2026 17:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

2. Bundesliga
Position 1
Points / played
25 / 9

Table source synced 31 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Hertha BSC 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga · UTC
  2. Hertha BSC 6–1 1. FC KaiserslauternDFB Pokal · UTC
  3. 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0–1 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga · UTC
  4. Hertha BSC 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga · UTC
  5. 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3–4 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 31 Oct 2026 01:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1576220
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
3a4a59098bea604408b6aab2f0be7d0fd5fcf84875d66c927ffb906ffbaa11a7