4. liga - Divizie D · 03 Oct 2026

Sparta Brno vs Ždírec nad DoubravouMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 3–1 · regulation time

Result record v2 · recorded 03 Oct 2026 11:01 UTC. Source synced 03 Oct 2026 10:56 UTC.

Result changes (1)
  1. v1 · 1H Initial source observation · 03 Oct 2026 09:20 UTC Source synced 03 Oct 2026 09:20 UTC · source kickoff 03 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC
  2. v2 · FT · 3–1 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 03 Oct 2026 11:01 UTC Source synced 03 Oct 2026 10:56 UTC · source kickoff 03 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 03 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Bet365 · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 02 Oct 2026 16:16 UTC; synced 03 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC. Saved 03 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.7
Without margin
52.71%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-7.71 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
4
Without margin
22.40%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+22.60 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
3.6
Without margin
24.89%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-14.89 pp

Raw implied probability total: 111.60%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Sparta Brno

WWLWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 11
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%

Sparta Brno scored 8 and conceded 11 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Sparta Brno 3–2 Sokol Tasovice4. liga - Divizie D · UTC
  2. Sparta Brno 1–0 Humpolec4. liga - Divizie D · UTC
  3. Sparta Brno 0–9 Baník OstravaCup · UTC
  4. Sparta Brno 2–0 Chotebor4. liga - Divizie D · UTC
  5. Sparta Brno 2–0 Sokol LanžhotCup · UTC

Away matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou

LLLDL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
4 / 13
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Ždírec nad Doubravou scored 4 and conceded 13 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Kuřim 6–1 Ždírec nad Doubravou4. liga - Divizie D · UTC
  2. Velké Meziříčí 3–2 Ždírec nad Doubravou4. liga - Divizie D · UTC
  3. Velká Bíteš 1–0 Ždírec nad Doubravou4. liga - Divizie D · UTC
  4. Tatran Bohunice 1–1 Ždírec nad Doubravou4. liga - Divizie D · UTC
  5. Velká Bíteš 2–0 Ždírec nad Doubravou4. liga - Divizie D · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Sparta Brno

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Sparta Brno

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Ždírec nad Doubravou

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Sparta Brno

7.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 25 Sep 2026 14:15 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Group D
Position 7
Points / played
13 / 8

Table source synced 02 Oct 2026 23:42 UTC.

Ždírec nad Doubravou

5.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 27 Sep 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Group D
Position 13
Points / played
8 / 8

Table source synced 02 Oct 2026 23:42 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Sparta Brno 2–1 Ždírec nad Doubravou4. liga - Divizie D · UTC
  2. Ždírec nad Doubravou 0–1 Sparta Brno4. liga - Divizie D · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 03 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1579130
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
f9ca78383f044ab88af3cf1f32fa3592c9f3ca2a2bc979b70d5dc968aed34235