Süper Lig · 12 Oct 2026

Eyüpspor vs GöztepeMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 0–4 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 12 Oct 2026 23:30 UTC. Source synced 12 Oct 2026 23:29 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Away win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
10%
Draw
45%
Away win
45%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 11 Oct 2026 21:12 UTC; synced 12 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC. Saved 12 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
3.72
Without margin
25.00%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-15.00 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.72
Without margin
25.00%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+20.00 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
1.86
Without margin
50.00%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-5.00 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.53%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Eyüpspor

LWLWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
9 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%

Eyüpspor scored 9 and conceded 4 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Eyüpspor 0–2 RizesporSüper Lig · UTC
  2. Eyüpspor 2–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig · UTC
  3. Eyüpspor 0–1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig · UTC
  4. Eyüpspor 4–0 RizesporSüper Lig · UTC
  5. Eyüpspor 3–0 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig · UTC

Away matches

Göztepe

DLDWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
11 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%

Göztepe scored 11 and conceded 9 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Alanyaspor 2–2 GöztepeSüper Lig · UTC
  2. Galatasaray 3–2 GöztepeSüper Lig · UTC
  3. Samsunspor 3–3 GöztepeSüper Lig · UTC
  4. Zorya Luhansk 1–2 GöztepeFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  5. LNZ Cherkasy 0–2 GöztepeFriendlies Clubs · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Eyüpspor

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
0.84 / 1.57
xG per match, for / against
0.42 / 0.78
Goals on this same sample
2 / 2

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor xG for / against Eyüpspor: 0.44 / 0.62 Statistics synced: team 30 Aug 2026 18:21 UTC; opponent 30 Aug 2026 18:21 UTC.
  2. Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK xG for / against Eyüpspor: 0.40 / 0.95 Statistics synced: team 24 Aug 2026 06:20 UTC; opponent 24 Aug 2026 06:20 UTC.

Away matches

Göztepe

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
2.84 / 5.70
xG per match, for / against
1.42 / 2.85
Goals on this same sample
5 / 6

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Galatasaray vs Göztepe xG for / against Göztepe: 0.95 / 2.96 Statistics synced: team 30 Aug 2026 04:19 UTC; opponent 30 Aug 2026 04:19 UTC.
  2. Samsunspor vs Göztepe xG for / against Göztepe: 1.89 / 2.74 Statistics synced: team 17 Aug 2026 20:43 UTC; opponent 17 Aug 2026 20:43 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Eyüpspor

Reported absences

  • A. SabiriMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Göztepe

Reported absences

  • N. Sonko SundbergMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • F. BayirMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • G. BayrakdarMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • Allan GodoiMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • N. MiroshiQuestionable · Inactive Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • I. SabraMissing Fixture · Ankle Injury Record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Eyüpspor

22.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 14:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Süper Lig
Position 18
Points / played
3 / 6

Table source synced 12 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.

Göztepe

22 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 17:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Süper Lig
Position 17
Points / played
3 / 6

Table source synced 12 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 12 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1584423
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
26284526b5843ddcb6cd1b5ad4bcc02ed29e51987b93f0a422a72a86117b006d