Süper Lig · 23 Oct 2026

Alanyaspor vs KocaelisporMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 1–2 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 24 Oct 2026 04:30 UTC. Source synced 23 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 1.215 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Away win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 23 Oct 2026 00:59 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 23 Oct 2026 00:01 UTC; synced 23 Oct 2026 00:59 UTC. Saved 23 Oct 2026 01:01 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.94
Without margin
47.93%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-2.93 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.24
Without margin
28.70%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+16.30 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
3.98
Without margin
23.36%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-13.36 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.54%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Alanyaspor

DDWWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Alanyaspor scored 8 and conceded 6 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Alanyaspor 0–0 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig · UTC
  2. Alanyaspor 2–2 GöztepeSüper Lig · UTC
  3. Alanyaspor 1–0 BeşiktaşSüper Lig · UTC
  4. Alanyaspor 3–1 KayserisporSüper Lig · UTC
  5. Alanyaspor 2–3 SamsunsporSüper Lig · UTC

Away matches

Kocaelispor

LLWLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
3 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Kocaelispor scored 3 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Beşiktaş 2–1 KocaelisporSüper Lig · UTC
  2. Galatasaray 1–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig · UTC
  3. Konyaspor 1–2 KocaelisporSüper Lig · UTC
  4. Başakşehir 2–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig · UTC
  5. Antalyaspor 1–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Alanyaspor

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
2.49 / 3.92
xG per match, for / against
0.83 / 1.31
Goals on this same sample
3 / 3

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK xG for / against Alanyaspor: 0.98 / 1.69 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 02:34 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 02:34 UTC.
  2. Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş xG for / against Alanyaspor: 0.41 / 0.69 Statistics synced: team 23 Aug 2026 20:33 UTC; opponent 23 Aug 2026 20:33 UTC.
  3. Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor xG for / against Alanyaspor: 1.10 / 1.54 Statistics synced: team 27 Apr 2026 16:11 UTC; opponent 27 Apr 2026 16:11 UTC.

Away matches

Kocaelispor

Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
3.22 / 7.75
xG per match, for / against
0.80 / 1.94
Goals on this same sample
1 / 6

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor xG for / against Kocaelispor: 1.65 / 2.21 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 18:14 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 18:14 UTC.
  2. Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor xG for / against Kocaelispor: 0.82 / 2.26 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 07:50 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 07:50 UTC.
  3. Başakşehir vs Kocaelispor xG for / against Kocaelispor: 0.42 / 1.96 Statistics synced: team 16 Aug 2026 18:02 UTC; opponent 16 Aug 2026 18:02 UTC.
  4. Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor xG for / against Kocaelispor: 0.33 / 1.32 Statistics synced: team 17 May 2026 20:56 UTC; opponent 17 May 2026 20:56 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Alanyaspor

Reported absences

  • P. FernandesQuestionable · Injury Record synced 23 Oct 2026 00:26 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Kocaelispor

Reported absences

  • B. PetkovicMissing Fixture · Hamstring Injury Record synced 23 Oct 2026 00:26 UTC.
  • M. HaidaraMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 23 Oct 2026 00:26 UTC.
  • A. JovanovicMissing Fixture · Coach's decision Record synced 23 Oct 2026 00:26 UTC.
  • T. ZoukrouMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 23 Oct 2026 00:26 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Alanyaspor

6 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 17 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Süper Lig
Position 9
Points / played
12 / 8

Table source synced 23 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.

Kocaelispor

5.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Süper Lig
Position 8
Points / played
12 / 8

Table source synced 23 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 23 Oct 2026 01:01 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1584439
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
6f4f850f0f316bf38fa6bc73b4cac4276b4cb9eb9a49041d7dd6b0d7163bdf06