National League · 30 Sep 2026

Tamworth vs Sutton UtdMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 2–0 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 02 Oct 2026 18:20 UTC. Source synced 30 Sep 2026 23:56 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.667 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

Provider rounding was adjusted for scoring only by dividing each probability by their total. Displayed and stored percentages remain unchanged.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
33%
Draw
33%
Away win
33%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 30 Sep 2026 00:37 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 30 Sep 2026 00:00 UTC; synced 30 Sep 2026 00:37 UTC. Saved 30 Sep 2026 00:41 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
2.2
Without margin
40.67%
Provider estimate
33.00%
Provider − market
-7.67 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.34
Without margin
26.79%
Provider estimate
33.00%
Provider − market
+6.21 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
2.75
Without margin
32.54%
Provider estimate
33.00%
Provider − market
+0.46 pp

Raw implied probability total: 111.76%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Tamworth

WLDWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
13 / 11
Over 2.5 frequency
5/5 100%
BTTS frequency
5/5 100%

Tamworth scored 13 and conceded 11 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Tamworth 2–1 WealdstoneNational League · UTC
  2. Tamworth 1–3 Middlesbrough U21National League Cup · UTC
  3. Tamworth 2–2 Boston UnitedNational League · UTC
  4. Tamworth 3–2 WorthingNational League · UTC
  5. Tamworth 5–3 Newcastle United U21National League Cup · UTC

Away matches

Sutton Utd

DLWWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%

Sutton Utd scored 7 and conceded 4 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. FC Halifax Town 1–1 Sutton UtdNational League · UTC
  2. Barrow 3–0 Sutton UtdNational League · UTC
  3. Gateshead 0–1 Sutton UtdNational League · UTC
  4. Woking 0–3 Sutton UtdNational League · UTC
  5. Tonbridge Angels 0–2 Sutton UtdFriendlies Clubs · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Tamworth

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

Sutton Utd

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Tamworth

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sutton Utd

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Tamworth

4.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 26 Sep 2026 14:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Conference
Position 22
Points / played
8 / 10

Table source synced 30 Sep 2026 00:37 UTC.

Sutton Utd

4.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 26 Sep 2026 14:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Conference
Position 11
Points / played
17 / 10

Table source synced 30 Sep 2026 00:37 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. Tamworth 0–1 Sutton UtdNational League · UTC
  2. Sutton Utd 2–3 TamworthNational League · UTC
  3. Sutton Utd 1–0 TamworthFA Trophy · UTC
  4. Sutton Utd 1–2 TamworthNational League · UTC
  5. Tamworth 1–1 Sutton UtdNational League · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 30 Sep 2026 00:41 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1585268
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
54b14aedb2e3f01cadba5ae8d76d7c0605330a14aae0c395342048d76d75f4c7