Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 2–4· regulation time
Result record v2 · recorded 03 Oct 2026 15:50 UTC. Source synced 03 Oct 2026 15:46 UTC.
Result changes (1)
v1 · HT
Initial source observation · 03 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC
Source synced 03 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC · source kickoff 03 Oct 2026 12:00 UTC
v2 · FT · 2–4
Source status, score or kickoff changed · 03 Oct 2026 15:50 UTC
Source synced 03 Oct 2026 15:46 UTC · source kickoff 03 Oct 2026 12:00 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 1.215· lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Away win.
Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 03 Oct 2026 01:07 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Erbaaspor
WDDLW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%
Erbaaspor scored 10 and conceded 9 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Erbaaspor 3–2 Sebat Gençlikspor2. Lig · UTC
Erbaaspor 4–4 Muş Sport Klübü2. Lig · UTC
Erbaaspor 1–1 Ankaragücü2. Lig · UTC
Erbaaspor 0–2 Adana 01 FK2. Lig · UTC
Erbaaspor 2–0 İskenderunspor2. Lig · UTC
Away matches
Aliağa FAŞ
LWDWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
15 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Aliağa FAŞ scored 15 and conceded 9 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Elazığspor 5–0 Aliağa FAŞ2. Lig · UTC
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1–4 Aliağa FAŞ2. Lig · UTC
68 Aksaray Belediyespor 1–1 Aliağa FAŞ2. Lig · UTC
Kırklarelispor 1–2 Aliağa FAŞ2. Lig · UTC
Adanaspor 1–8 Aliağa FAŞ2. Lig · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Erbaaspor
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Away matches
Aliağa FAŞ
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Erbaaspor
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Aliağa FAŞ
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Erbaaspor
5.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 27 Sep 2026 16:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Lig B: White Group
Position 6
Points / played
7 / 4
Table source synced 03 Oct 2026 00:38 UTC.
Aliağa FAŞ
5.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 27 Sep 2026 16:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Lig B: White Group
Position 3
Points / played
9 / 4
Table source synced 03 Oct 2026 00:38 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 03 Oct 2026 01:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.