Second League · 09 Oct 2026

Team vs PharcoMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 0–3 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 09 Oct 2026 16:41 UTC. Source synced 09 Oct 2026 16:39 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.667 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Away win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

Provider rounding was adjusted for scoring only by dividing each probability by their total. Displayed and stored percentages remain unchanged.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
33%
Draw
33%
Away win
33%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 09 Oct 2026 00:16 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 09 Oct 2026 00:00 UTC; synced 09 Oct 2026 00:16 UTC. Saved 09 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
3.22
Without margin
27.66%
Provider estimate
33.00%
Provider − market
+5.34 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
2.72
Without margin
32.75%
Provider estimate
33.00%
Provider − market
+0.25 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
2.25
Without margin
39.59%
Provider estimate
33.00%
Provider − market
-6.59 pp

Raw implied probability total: 112.27%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Team

LWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
3 matches
Goals scored / conceded
3 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
2/3 66.7%
BTTS frequency
2/3 66.7%

Team scored 3 and conceded 4 across these 3 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Team 1–2 El DakhleyaSecond League · UTC
  2. Team 1–0 ProxySecond League · UTC
  3. Team 1–2 El Seka El HadidSecond League · UTC

Away matches

Pharco

LDWWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
4 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Pharco scored 4 and conceded 5 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Kahraba Ismailia 3–1 PharcoSecond League · UTC
  2. El Dakhleya 0–0 PharcoSecond League · UTC
  3. Proxy 0–1 PharcoSecond League · UTC
  4. Ismaily SC 1–2 PharcoPremier League · UTC
  5. El Geish 1–0 PharcoPremier League · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Team

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 3 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

Pharco

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
0.41 / 1.00
xG per match, for / against
0.41 / 1.00
Goals on this same sample
0 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. El Geish vs Pharco xG for / against Pharco: 0.41 / 1.00 Statistics synced: team 18 May 2026 16:09 UTC; opponent 18 May 2026 16:09 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Team

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Pharco

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Team

7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 02 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Division 2
Position 15
Points / played
7 / 7

Table source synced 08 Oct 2026 23:24 UTC.

Pharco

8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 01 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Division 2
Position 7
Points / played
13 / 7

Table source synced 08 Oct 2026 23:24 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 09 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1594866
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
d5c2e9723481dc1feca9fbedae103eb3be7034caea912f8960c9ac98b2b8fe36