Pro League · 30 Oct 2026

Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli JeddahMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 6–1 · regulation time

Result record v2 · recorded 31 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC. Source synced 30 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Result changes (1)
  1. v1 · HT Initial source observation · 30 Oct 2026 19:01 UTC Source synced 30 Oct 2026 19:01 UTC · source kickoff 30 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC
  2. v2 · FT · 6–1 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 31 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC Source synced 30 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC · source kickoff 30 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 1.215 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
10%
Draw
45%
Away win
45%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 30 Oct 2026 01:00 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 30 Oct 2026 00:00 UTC; synced 30 Oct 2026 01:00 UTC. Saved 30 Oct 2026 01:01 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
3.64
Without margin
24.58%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-14.58 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.82
Without margin
23.42%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+21.58 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
1.72
Without margin
52.01%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-7.01 pp

Raw implied probability total: 111.79%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Al Shabab

DWDLD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Al Shabab scored 8 and conceded 7 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Al Shabab 2–2 Al-Faisaly FCPro League · UTC
  2. Al Shabab 3–0 Al TaawonPro League · UTC
  3. Al Shabab 0–0 Al-FayhaPro League · UTC
  4. Al Shabab 0–2 Al-Hilal Saudi FCPro League · UTC
  5. Al Shabab 3–3 Al RiyadhPro League · UTC

Away matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah

WWWLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
13 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency
5/5 100%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%

Al-Ahli Jeddah scored 13 and conceded 8 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Al-Fayha 2–3 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League · UTC
  2. Al-Wasl FC 1–3 Al-Ahli JeddahAFC Champions League Elite · UTC
  3. Al-Fateh 0–4 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League · UTC
  4. Mamelodi Sundowns 2–1 Al-Ahli JeddahFIFA Intercontinental Cup · UTC
  5. Al-Qadisiyah FC 3–2 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Al Shabab

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
6.41 / 3.62
xG per match, for / against
2.14 / 1.21
Goals on this same sample
8 / 5

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC xG for / against Al Shabab: 1.27 / 1.54 Statistics synced: team 28 Oct 2026 05:35 UTC; opponent 28 Oct 2026 05:35 UTC.
  2. Al Shabab vs Al Taawon xG for / against Al Shabab: 2.34 / 0.90 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 18:55 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 18:55 UTC.
  3. Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh xG for / against Al Shabab: 2.80 / 1.18 Statistics synced: team 25 Aug 2026 20:18 UTC; opponent 25 Aug 2026 20:18 UTC.

Away matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
8.04 / 2.11
xG per match, for / against
2.68 / 0.70
Goals on this same sample
10 / 3

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah xG for / against Al-Ahli Jeddah: 4.18 / 0.70 Statistics synced: team 28 Oct 2026 03:35 UTC; opponent 28 Oct 2026 03:35 UTC.
  2. Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah xG for / against Al-Ahli Jeddah: 1.32 / 0.96 Statistics synced: team 28 Oct 2026 04:04 UTC; opponent 28 Oct 2026 04:04 UTC.
  3. Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah xG for / against Al-Ahli Jeddah: 2.54 / 0.45 Statistics synced: team 23 Oct 2026 15:05 UTC; opponent 23 Oct 2026 15:05 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Al Shabab

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Al Shabab

8.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 22 Oct 2026 14:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Saudi Professional League
Position 12
Points / played
11 / 10

Table source synced 30 Oct 2026 00:19 UTC.

Al-Ahli Jeddah

4.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 26 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Saudi Professional League
Position 5
Points / played
21 / 10

Table source synced 30 Oct 2026 00:19 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 30 Oct 2026 01:01 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1603078
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
f85a9e338cba584727c3e657647f3fe9ff5cb4e50ba7432dd4215eb2864c3f34