Carioca B2 · 01 Oct 2026
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Full time: 2–0 · regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 02 Oct 2026 18:20 UTC. Source synced 01 Oct 2026 23:56 UTC.
Brier score: 1.215 · lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 01 Oct 2026 00:09 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Rio de Janeiro scored 5 and conceded 12 across these 4 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Away matches
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Barra Mansa scored 3 and conceded 7 across these 4 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 4 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Away matches
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 4 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 27 Sep 2026 18:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Table source synced 30 Sep 2026 23:49 UTC.
3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 28 Sep 2026 17:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Table source synced 30 Sep 2026 23:49 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 01 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology