Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 0–1· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 20 Oct 2026 02:00 UTC. Source synced 19 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.515· lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Away win.
Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
10%
Draw
45%
Away win
45%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 19 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Paraty
LLLLL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
1 / 16
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%
Paraty scored 1 and conceded 16 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Paraty 0–4 Rio de JaneiroCarioca B2 · UTC
Paraty 0–3 PaduanoCarioca B2 · UTC
Paraty 1–4 FriburguenseCarioca B2 · UTC
Paraty 0–4 SE Belford RoxoCarioca B2 · UTC
Paraty 0–1 Santa Cruz RJCarioca B2 · UTC
Away matches
Santa Cruz RJ
LLWLL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
4 / 13
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Santa Cruz RJ scored 4 and conceded 13 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Serra Macaense 3–0 Santa Cruz RJCarioca B2 · UTC
SE Belford Roxo 3–0 Santa Cruz RJCarioca B2 · UTC
Rio de Janeiro 1–3 Santa Cruz RJCarioca B2 · UTC
Paduano 1–0 Santa Cruz RJCarioca B2 · UTC
Pérolas Negras 5–1 Santa Cruz RJCopa Rio · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Paraty
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Away matches
Santa Cruz RJ
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Paraty
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Santa Cruz RJ
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Paraty
14 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 05 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Carioca B2
Position 12
Points / played
0 / 8
Table source synced 18 Oct 2026 20:33 UTC.
Santa Cruz RJ
7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 12 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Carioca B2
Position 3
Points / played
15 / 8
Table source synced 18 Oct 2026 20:33 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 19 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.