Premier League · 12 Oct 2026

Smouha SC vs Ghazl El MehallaMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 1–0 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 13 Oct 2026 01:50 UTC. Source synced 12 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 11 Oct 2026 21:32 UTC; synced 12 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC. Saved 12 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
2.13
Without margin
41.95%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+3.05 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
2.56
Without margin
34.90%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+10.10 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
3.86
Without margin
23.15%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-13.15 pp

Raw implied probability total: 111.92%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Smouha SC

LDLLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
0 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency
0/5 0%
BTTS frequency
0/5 0%

Smouha SC scored 0 and conceded 6 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 0 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Smouha SC 0–2 Ceramica CleopatraPremier League · UTC
  2. Smouha SC 0–0 Asyut PetrolPremier League · UTC
  3. Smouha SC 0–1 Zamalek SCPremier League · UTC
  4. Smouha SC 0–1 AL MasryPremier League · UTC
  5. Smouha SC 0–2 Ceramica CleopatraPremier League · UTC

Away matches

Ghazl El Mehalla

LLDLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
3 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Ghazl El Mehalla scored 3 and conceded 9 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. National Bank of Egypt 3–1 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League · UTC
  2. Future FC 2–0 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League · UTC
  3. Future FC 0–0 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League · UTC
  4. Masr 3–2 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League · UTC
  5. El Geish 1–0 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Smouha SC

Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
2.90 / 3.28
xG per match, for / against
0.73 / 0.82
Goals on this same sample
0 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Smouha SC vs Asyut Petrol xG for / against Smouha SC: 0.72 / 0.80 Statistics synced: team 26 Aug 2026 16:13 UTC; opponent 26 Aug 2026 16:13 UTC.
  2. Smouha SC vs Zamalek SC xG for / against Smouha SC: 0.55 / 0.45 Statistics synced: team 05 May 2026 19:43 UTC; opponent 05 May 2026 19:43 UTC.
  3. Smouha SC vs AL Masry xG for / against Smouha SC: 0.81 / 1.30 Statistics synced: team 27 Apr 2026 16:10 UTC; opponent 27 Apr 2026 16:10 UTC.
  4. Smouha SC vs Ceramica Cleopatra xG for / against Smouha SC: 0.82 / 0.73 Statistics synced: team 22 Apr 2026 20:21 UTC; opponent 22 Apr 2026 20:21 UTC.

Away matches

Ghazl El Mehalla

Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
2.28 / 4.00
xG per match, for / against
0.57 / 1.00
Goals on this same sample
2 / 6

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Future FC vs Ghazl El Mehalla xG for / against Ghazl El Mehalla: 0.79 / 1.88 Statistics synced: team 27 Aug 2026 16:13 UTC; opponent 27 Aug 2026 16:13 UTC.
  2. Future FC vs Ghazl El Mehalla xG for / against Ghazl El Mehalla: 0.13 / 0.47 Statistics synced: team 23 May 2026 20:46 UTC; opponent 23 May 2026 20:46 UTC.
  3. Masr vs Ghazl El Mehalla xG for / against Ghazl El Mehalla: 1.09 / 0.80 Statistics synced: team 13 May 2026 16:13 UTC; opponent 13 May 2026 16:13 UTC.
  4. El Geish vs Ghazl El Mehalla xG for / against Ghazl El Mehalla: 0.27 / 0.85 Statistics synced: team 07 May 2026 16:13 UTC; opponent 07 May 2026 16:13 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Smouha SC

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Ghazl El Mehalla

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Smouha SC

28.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 14 Sep 2026 14:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Premier League
Position 16
Points / played
4 / 5

Table source synced 12 Oct 2026 00:16 UTC.

Ghazl El Mehalla

4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 08 Oct 2026 17:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Premier League
Position 20
Points / played
1 / 5

Table source synced 12 Oct 2026 00:16 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 12 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1612254
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
3f2a625b621f8153038ad4b079ae23a2877176eaf27527b56d5baaa04416ecbe