Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21Match analysis

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win

10%

Draw

45%

Away win

45%

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 09 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 08 Nov 2026 20:46 UTC; synced 09 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC. Saved 09 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Raw implied probability total: 112.24%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

1. 20 Mar 2026Derby County U21 1–0 Middlesbrough U21Premier League 2 Division One · UTC
2. 05 Nov 2023Middlesbrough U21 1–0 Derby County U21Premier League 2 Division One · UTC
3. 24 Mar 2023Derby County U21 1–5 Middlesbrough U21Premier League 2 Division One · UTC
4. 12 Aug 2022Middlesbrough U21 3–1 Derby County U21Premier League 2 Division One · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 09 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology