Derby County U18 vs Manchester City U18Match analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 1–5· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 25 Oct 2026 06:30 UTC. Source synced 24 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.515· lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Away win.
Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
10%
Draw
45%
Away win
45%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 24 Oct 2026 01:00 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Derby County U18
DLLLW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 12
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Derby County U18 scored 8 and conceded 12 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Derby County U18 3–3 Liverpool U18U18 Premier League - North · UTC
Derby County U18 0–2 Nottingham Forest U18U18 Premier League - North · UTC
Derby County U18 1–4 Burnley U18U18 Premier League - North · UTC
Derby County U18 1–2 Burnley U18U18 Premier League - North · UTC
Derby County U18 3–1 Newcastle United U18U18 Premier League - North · UTC
Away matches
Manchester City U18
WWWLL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
19 / 15
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%
Manchester City U18 scored 19 and conceded 15 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Everton U18 0–6 Manchester City U18U18 Premier League - North · UTC
Stoke City U18 5–8 Manchester City U18U18 Premier League - North · UTC
Manchester United U18 0–1 Manchester City U18U18 Premier League - North · UTC
Chelsea U18 5–1 Manchester City U18U18 Premier League - Championship · UTC
Everton U18 5–3 Manchester City U18U18 Premier League - North · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Derby County U18
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Away matches
Manchester City U18
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Derby County U18
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Manchester City U18
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Derby County U18
7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 17 Oct 2026 10:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
North
Position 5
Points / played
10 / 7
Table source synced 24 Oct 2026 00:22 UTC.
Manchester City U18
35 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 19 Sep 2026 10:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
North
Position 1
Points / played
18 / 6
Table source synced 24 Oct 2026 00:22 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Manchester City U18 5–3 Derby County U18U18 Premier League - North · UTC
Derby County U18 3–1 Manchester City U18U18 Premier League - North · UTC
Manchester City U18 4–3 Derby County U18U18 Premier League - North · UTC
Derby County U18 3–5 Manchester City U18U18 Premier League - North · UTC
Manchester City U18 5–1 Derby County U18U18 Premier League - North · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 24 Oct 2026 01:11 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.