Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 1–3· regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 23 Oct 2026 17:00 UTC. Source synced 23 Oct 2026 16:59 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.515· lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Away win.
Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
10%
Draw
45%
Away win
45%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 23 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Al Arabi
LDWWD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%
Al Arabi scored 8 and conceded 4 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Al Arabi 0–1 WathbaAFC Challenge League · UTC
Al Arabi 3–3 Al SulaibikhatPremier League · UTC
Al Arabi 3–0 Al FahaheelPremier League · UTC
Al Arabi 2–0 Al QadsiaPremier League · UTC
Al Arabi 0–0 Al QadsiaPremier League · UTC
Away matches
Al Nejmeh
LWDWD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
6 / 3
Over 2.5 frequency
1/5 20%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%
Al Nejmeh scored 6 and conceded 3 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Wathba 2–1 Al NejmehAFC Challenge League · UTC
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 0–2 Al NejmehPremier League · UTC
Al Ansar 1–1 Al NejmehPremier League · UTC
Al Ahed 0–2 Al NejmehPremier League · UTC
Jwaaya FC 0–0 Al NejmehPremier League · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Al Arabi
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Away matches
Al Nejmeh
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Al Arabi
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Al Nejmeh
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Al Arabi
2.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 20 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
Al Nejmeh
3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 20 Oct 2026 11:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
League position and points: N/A.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Al Nejmeh 1–2 Al ArabiAFC Champions League Two · UTC
Al Arabi 0–0 Al NejmehAFC Champions League Two · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 23 Oct 2026 00:11 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.