Azadegan League · 05 Oct 2026

Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario EslamshahrMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 1–0 · regulation time

Result record v2 · recorded 05 Oct 2026 17:50 UTC. Source synced 05 Oct 2026 17:49 UTC.

Result changes (1)
  1. v1 · NS Initial source observation · 05 Oct 2026 13:31 UTC Source synced 05 Oct 2026 13:29 UTC · source kickoff 05 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC
  2. v2 · FT · 1–0 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 05 Oct 2026 17:50 UTC Source synced 05 Oct 2026 17:49 UTC · source kickoff 05 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.635 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
35%
Draw
35%
Away win
30%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 05 Oct 2026 00:09 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 04 Oct 2026 20:39 UTC; synced 05 Oct 2026 00:09 UTC. Saved 05 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
2.77
Without margin
32.18%
Provider estimate
35.00%
Provider − market
+2.82 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
2.77
Without margin
32.18%
Provider estimate
35.00%
Provider − market
+2.82 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
2.5
Without margin
35.65%
Provider estimate
30.00%
Provider − market
-5.65 pp

Raw implied probability total: 112.20%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Mes Rafsanjan

WDLLD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
1 / 2
Over 2.5 frequency
0/5 0%
BTTS frequency
0/5 0%

Mes Rafsanjan scored 1 and conceded 2 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 0 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Mes Rafsanjan 1–0 Be'sat KermanshahAzadegan League · UTC
  2. Mes Rafsanjan 0–0 HavadarAzadegan League · UTC
  3. Mes Rafsanjan 0–1 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League · UTC
  4. Mes Rafsanjan 0–1 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League · UTC
  5. Mes Rafsanjan 0–0 ZOB AhanPersian Gulf Pro League · UTC

Away matches

Ario Eslamshahr

WWDLD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
4 / 3
Over 2.5 frequency
1/5 20%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Ario Eslamshahr scored 4 and conceded 3 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Naft Gachsaran 0–1 Ario EslamshahrAzadegan League · UTC
  2. Nassaji Mazandaran 1–2 Ario EslamshahrAzadegan League · UTC
  3. Damash Gilanian 1–1 Ario EslamshahrAzadegan League · UTC
  4. Saipa 1–0 Ario EslamshahrAzadegan League · UTC
  5. Niroye Zamini 0–0 Ario EslamshahrAzadegan League · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Mes Rafsanjan

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

Ario Eslamshahr

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Mes Rafsanjan

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Ario Eslamshahr

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Mes Rafsanjan

6 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 29 Sep 2026 13:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Regular Season
Position 8
Points / played
5 / 3

Table source synced 04 Oct 2026 23:19 UTC.

Ario Eslamshahr

7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 28 Sep 2026 13:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Regular Season
Position 5
Points / played
6 / 3

Table source synced 04 Oct 2026 23:19 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 05 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1632821
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
3ef27662e3cfd5772bcf9e9bdf92d176fdc0c21a6ef035f85ec0d32cb0cfb232