Tigres de Alica vs Reboceros La PiedadMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 4–0· regulation time
Result record v2 · recorded 17 Oct 2026 16:21 UTC. Source synced 17 Oct 2026 16:19 UTC.
Source kickoff changed to 17 Oct 2026 02:30 UTC. The original publication retains its scheduled kickoff.
Result changes (1)
v1 · 2H
Initial source observation · 17 Oct 2026 04:11 UTC
Source synced 17 Oct 2026 04:11 UTC · source kickoff 17 Oct 2026 02:30 UTC
v2 · FT · 4–0
Source status, score or kickoff changed · 17 Oct 2026 16:21 UTC
Source synced 17 Oct 2026 16:19 UTC · source kickoff 17 Oct 2026 02:30 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 0.635· lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Home win.
Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
35%
Draw
35%
Away win
30%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 17 Oct 2026 00:09 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Tigres de Alica
WDWWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Tigres de Alica scored 10 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Tigres de Alica 1–0 H2O PurepechasPrimera Premier · UTC
Tigres de Alica 1–1 Lobos ULMXPrimera Premier · UTC
Tigres de Alica 3–1 Zacatepec 1948Primera Premier · UTC
Tigres de Alica 2–1 Deportivo ZapLiga Premier Serie A · UTC
Tigres de Alica 3–2 UA ZacatecasLiga Premier Serie A · UTC
Away matches
Reboceros La Piedad
DWWLL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 12
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Reboceros La Piedad scored 8 and conceded 12 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Zacatepec 1948 2–2 Reboceros La PiedadPrimera Premier · UTC
Cordobés 1–2 Reboceros La PiedadPrimera Premier · UTC
Tritons Vallarta 0–1 Reboceros La PiedadPrimera Premier · UTC
Durango 3–1 Reboceros La PiedadLiga Premier Serie A · UTC
Mineros de Fresnillo 6–2 Reboceros La PiedadLiga Premier Serie A · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Tigres de Alica
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Away matches
Reboceros La Piedad
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Tigres de Alica
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Reboceros La Piedad
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Tigres de Alica
6.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 21:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Regular Season
Position 6
Points / played
11 / 7
Table source synced 16 Oct 2026 23:29 UTC.
Reboceros La Piedad
7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 02:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Regular Season
Position 3
Points / played
15 / 6
Table source synced 16 Oct 2026 23:29 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
Tigres de Alica 2–1 Reboceros La PiedadLiga Premier Serie A · UTC
Reboceros La Piedad 0–2 Tigres de AlicaLiga Premier Serie A · UTC
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 17 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.