UEFA Europa League · 05 Nov 2026

AZ Alkmaar vs JuventusMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.

Recorded match result

Result pending — kickoff has not passed.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
35%
Draw
35%
Away win
30%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:18 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 04 Nov 2026 20:13 UTC; synced 05 Nov 2026 00:18 UTC. Saved 05 Nov 2026 00:30 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
3.64
Without margin
26.62%
Provider estimate
35.00%
Provider − market
+8.38 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.78
Without margin
25.64%
Provider estimate
35.00%
Provider − market
+9.36 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
2.03
Without margin
47.74%
Provider estimate
30.00%
Provider − market
-17.74 pp

Raw implied probability total: 103.19%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

AZ Alkmaar

LWWDW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
9 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

AZ Alkmaar scored 9 and conceded 6 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. AZ Alkmaar 0–2 TwenteEredivisie · UTC
  2. AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Hapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Europa League · UTC
  3. AZ Alkmaar 1–0 TelstarEredivisie · UTC
  4. AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Willem IIEredivisie · UTC
  5. AZ Alkmaar 5–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie · UTC

Away matches

Juventus

LWWDL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Juventus scored 7 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Genoa 2–0 JuventusSerie A · UTC
  2. Lecce 0–2 JuventusSerie A · UTC
  3. Celta Vigo 1–2 JuventusUEFA Europa League · UTC
  4. Cagliari 1–1 JuventusSerie A · UTC
  5. Sassuolo 3–2 JuventusSerie A · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

AZ Alkmaar

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
6.34 / 3.23
xG per match, for / against
2.11 / 1.08
Goals on this same sample
3 / 3

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. AZ Alkmaar vs Twente xG for / against AZ Alkmaar: 1.24 / 2.04 Statistics synced: team 04 Nov 2026 00:45 UTC; opponent 04 Nov 2026 00:45 UTC.
  2. AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva xG for / against AZ Alkmaar: 2.75 / 1.09 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 22:25 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 22:25 UTC.
  3. AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar xG for / against AZ Alkmaar: 2.35 / 0.10 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 21:05 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 21:05 UTC.

Away matches

Juventus

Paired xG coverage: 5 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
7.34 / 4.53
xG per match, for / against
1.47 / 0.91
Goals on this same sample
7 / 7

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Genoa vs Juventus xG for / against Juventus: 1.28 / 1.05 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 13:26 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 13:26 UTC.
  2. Lecce vs Juventus xG for / against Juventus: 1.06 / 0.86 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 23:05 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 23:05 UTC.
  3. Celta Vigo vs Juventus xG for / against Juventus: 1.95 / 1.08 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 23:35 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 23:35 UTC.
  4. Cagliari vs Juventus xG for / against Juventus: 1.95 / 0.52 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 19:14 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 19:14 UTC.
  5. Sassuolo vs Juventus xG for / against Juventus: 1.10 / 1.02 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 08:29 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 08:29 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

AZ Alkmaar

Reported absences

  • J. ZoetMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • J. HornkampMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • H. VerhulstMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • S. ResinkMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • K. SmitMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Juventus

Reported absences

  • K. ThuramMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • A. MilikMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • W. McKennieMissing Fixture · Groin Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • D. RuganiMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • K. GrabaraMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • Z. CelikMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • N. GonzalezMissing Fixture · Calf Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • M. LocatelliMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • E. ZhegrovaMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • F. ConceicaoMissing Fixture · Shoulder Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • K. YildizMissing Fixture · Foot Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

AZ Alkmaar

5 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 31 Oct 2026 20:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 10
Points / played
6 / 3

Table source synced 05 Nov 2026 00:18 UTC.

Juventus

4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 01 Nov 2026 19:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 7
Points / played
7 / 3

Table source synced 05 Nov 2026 00:18 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 05 Nov 2026 00:30 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1636219
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
bdbadc462e1edc9d95f48de59ef2609d7d2bf8432bd8929f18fa5490067b1c3d