Home win
- Decimal odds
- 1.16
- Without margin
- 82.55%
- Provider estimate
- 50.00%
- Provider − market
- -32.55 pp
UEFA Europa League · 05 Nov 2026
Benfica vs Lech PoznanMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.
Recorded match result
Result pending — kickoff has not passed.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 50%
- Draw
- 50%
- Away win
- 0%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:18 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 04 Nov 2026 20:13 UTC; synced 05 Nov 2026 00:18 UTC. Saved 05 Nov 2026 00:30 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 8.1
- Without margin
- 11.82%
- Provider estimate
- 50.00%
- Provider − market
- +38.18 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 17
- Without margin
- 5.63%
- Provider estimate
- 0.00%
- Provider − market
- -5.63 pp
Raw implied probability total: 104.43%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Benfica
WWWWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 14 / 3
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 3/5 60%
- BTTS frequency
- 3/5 60%
Benfica scored 14 and conceded 3 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Benfica 1–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga · UTC
- Benfica 4–1 GIL VicenteTaça da Liga · UTC
- Benfica 4–1 CelticUEFA Europa League · UTC
- Benfica 2–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga · UTC
- Benfica 3–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga · UTC
Away matches
Lech Poznan
LWWLL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 7 / 9
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 4/5 80%
- BTTS frequency
- 3/5 60%
Lech Poznan scored 7 and conceded 9 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1–0 Lech PoznanCup · UTC
- Legia Warszawa 1–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa · UTC
- Slask Wroclaw 1–4 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa · UTC
- Crystal Palace 4–0 Lech PoznanUEFA Europa League · UTC
- Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Benfica
Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 10.56 / 3.54
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.64 / 0.89
- Goals on this same sample
- 10 / 2
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Benfica vs Alverca xG for / against Benfica: 1.68 / 0.62 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 20:24 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 20:24 UTC.
- Benfica vs Celtic xG for / against Benfica: 3.22 / 1.38 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 23:26 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 23:26 UTC.
- Benfica vs Vitória SC xG for / against Benfica: 2.76 / 0.43 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 18:36 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 18:36 UTC.
- Benfica vs GIL Vicente xG for / against Benfica: 2.90 / 1.11 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 07:49 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 07:49 UTC.
Away matches
Lech Poznan
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 3.27 / 2.30
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.64 / 1.15
- Goals on this same sample
- 6 / 2
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan xG for / against Lech Poznan: 1.23 / 1.46 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 22:54 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 22:54 UTC.
- Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan xG for / against Lech Poznan: 2.04 / 0.84 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 06:05 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 06:05 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Benfica
Reported absences
- D. LukebakioQuestionable · Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- L. BarreiroMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- E. BarrenecheaMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Lech Poznan
Reported absences
- A. GholizadehMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- M. IshakMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- A. SayyadmaneshMissing Fixture · Groin Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- J. MoutinhoMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- A. DouglasMissing Fixture · Ankle Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- W. MonkaMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Benfica
3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 02 Nov 2026 20:15 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- UEFA Europa League
- Position 2
- Points / played
- 9 / 3
Table source synced 05 Nov 2026 00:18 UTC.
Lech Poznan
5.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 31 Oct 2026 16:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- UEFA Europa League
- Position 32
- Points / played
- 1 / 3
Table source synced 05 Nov 2026 00:18 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 05 Nov 2026 00:30 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1636229
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 5c95ad339d578fa8e5c572fbe629a2d2d67233c08075cbaf3a52c4f1670757e7