UEFA Europa League · 22 Oct 2026

Bournemouth vs AC MilanMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 3–0 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 23 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC. Source synced 22 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:29 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 21 Oct 2026 20:25 UTC; synced 22 Oct 2026 00:29 UTC. Saved 22 Oct 2026 00:31 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
2.07
Without margin
46.85%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-1.85 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.72
Without margin
26.07%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+18.93 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
3.58
Without margin
27.09%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-17.09 pp

Raw implied probability total: 103.12%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Bournemouth

WWLDW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
11 / 3
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%

Bournemouth scored 11 and conceded 3 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Bournemouth 2–0 SunderlandPremier League · UTC
  2. Bournemouth 3–0 Sturm GrazUEFA Europa League · UTC
  3. Bournemouth 0–1 LiverpoolPremier League · UTC
  4. Bournemouth 2–2 BrentfordPremier League · UTC
  5. Bournemouth 4–0 LincolnLeague Cup · UTC

Away matches

AC Milan

WDDDW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%

AC Milan scored 10 and conceded 5 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Red Bull Salzburg 0–4 AC MilanUEFA Europa League · UTC
  2. Sassuolo 1–1 AC MilanSerie A · UTC
  3. Lazio 2–2 AC MilanSerie A · UTC
  4. Juventus 1–1 AC MilanSerie A · UTC
  5. Torino 1–2 AC MilanSerie A · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Bournemouth

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
8.07 / 2.15
xG per match, for / against
2.69 / 0.72
Goals on this same sample
5 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Bournemouth vs Sunderland xG for / against Bournemouth: 4.40 / 0.13 Statistics synced: team 19 Oct 2026 14:15 UTC; opponent 19 Oct 2026 14:15 UTC.
  2. Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz xG for / against Bournemouth: 2.88 / 0.37 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 19:25 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 19:25 UTC.
  3. Bournemouth vs Liverpool xG for / against Bournemouth: 0.79 / 1.65 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 22:06 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 22:06 UTC.

Away matches

AC Milan

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
6.22 / 3.01
xG per match, for / against
2.07 / 1.00
Goals on this same sample
7 / 2

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan xG for / against AC Milan: 3.45 / 0.89 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 18:26 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 18:26 UTC.
  2. Sassuolo vs AC Milan xG for / against AC Milan: 1.18 / 1.19 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 17:55 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 17:55 UTC.
  3. Torino vs AC Milan xG for / against AC Milan: 1.59 / 0.93 Statistics synced: team 23 Aug 2026 20:52 UTC; opponent 23 Aug 2026 20:52 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Bournemouth

Reported absences

  • F. ForsterMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
  • M. AaronsMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
  • J. AraujoMissing Fixture · Thigh Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
  • J. SanchezMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
  • D. JebbisonMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
  • A. ScottQuestionable · Thigh Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
  • E. J. KroupiMissing Fixture · Foot Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
  • V. MilosavljevicMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

AC Milan

Reported absences

  • A. SaelemaekersMissing Fixture · Ankle Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
  • M. GabbiaMissing Fixture · Thigh Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
  • F. TerraccianoMissing Fixture · Red Card Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.
  • W. BondoMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Bournemouth

4.3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 5
Points / played
6 / 2

Table source synced 22 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

AC Milan

4.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 16
Points / played
3 / 2

Table source synced 22 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 22 Oct 2026 00:31 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1636235
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
1f551c9ee966ef0540b4b4d5038ac5d38a5afea8418298172824242159654cd0