UEFA Europa League · 15 Oct 2026

Ferencvarosi TC vs PlzenMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 2–1 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 16 Oct 2026 05:31 UTC. Source synced 15 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:16 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 14 Oct 2026 20:24 UTC; synced 15 Oct 2026 00:16 UTC. Saved 15 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.92
Without margin
49.80%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-4.80 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.88
Without margin
24.64%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+20.36 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
3.74
Without margin
25.56%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-15.56 pp

Raw implied probability total: 104.59%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Ferencvarosi TC

DDWLW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
9 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Ferencvarosi TC scored 9 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 Debreceni VSCNB I · UTC
  2. Ferencvarosi TC 2–2 UjpestNB I · UTC
  3. Ferencvarosi TC 4–0 TrabzonsporUEFA Europa League · UTC
  4. Ferencvarosi TC 1–2 Real MadridFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  5. Ferencvarosi TC 1–0 Gornik ZabrzeUEFA Europa League · UTC

Away matches

Plzen

LDWLD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
9 / 10
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Plzen scored 9 and conceded 10 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Slavia Praha 2–1 PlzenCzech Liga · UTC
  2. Hradec Králové 0–0 PlzenCzech Liga · UTC
  3. Artis 0–3 PlzenCzech Liga · UTC
  4. FK Crvena Zvezda 3–0 PlzenUEFA Europa League · UTC
  5. Teplice 5–5 PlzenCzech Liga · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Ferencvarosi TC

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
1.63 / 1.58
xG per match, for / against
1.63 / 1.58
Goals on this same sample
1 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Ferencvarosi TC vs Debreceni VSC xG for / against Ferencvarosi TC: 1.63 / 1.58 Statistics synced: team 14 Oct 2026 11:14 UTC; opponent 14 Oct 2026 11:14 UTC.

Away matches

Plzen

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
0.82 / 1.88
xG per match, for / against
0.82 / 1.88
Goals on this same sample
1 / 2

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Slavia Praha vs Plzen xG for / against Plzen: 0.82 / 1.88 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 04:34 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 04:34 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Ferencvarosi TC

Reported absences

  • B. OtvosMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • G. SzecsiMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • E. BotkaQuestionable · Inactive Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • M. BeroMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • B. NagyMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • I. PappoeMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Plzen

Reported absences

  • V. JemelkaMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • M. TvrdonMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • J. PaluskaMissing Fixture · Surgery Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • P. AduMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Ferencvarosi TC

5.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 15:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 6
Points / played
3 / 1

Table source synced 15 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Plzen

5.3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 34
Points / played
0 / 1

Table source synced 15 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 15 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1636260
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
4aafb827743dca2b48ab04a4704b45caef389f5db2df7d41fa5ca93171304aa4