UEFA Europa League · 15 Oct 2026

Lech Poznan vs Bayer LeverkusenMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 0–4 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 15 Oct 2026 18:40 UTC. Source synced 15 Oct 2026 18:39 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 1.215 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Away win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 14 Oct 2026 20:24 UTC; synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC. Saved 15 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
4.65
Without margin
20.56%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+24.44 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
4.45
Without margin
21.49%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+23.51 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
1.65
Without margin
57.95%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-47.95 pp

Raw implied probability total: 104.58%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Lech Poznan

DWWWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
17 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Lech Poznan scored 17 and conceded 4 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Lech Poznan 2–2 Energie CottbusFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  2. Lech Poznan 5–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa · UTC
  3. Lech Poznan 1–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa · UTC
  4. Lech Poznan 2–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa · UTC
  5. Lech Poznan 7–0 FC ThunUEFA Europa League · UTC

Away matches

Bayer Leverkusen

WDLWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
14 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
5/5 100%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%

Bayer Leverkusen scored 14 and conceded 9 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga · UTC
  2. FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga · UTC
  3. SV Elversberg 3–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga · UTC
  4. SV Wehen 0–4 Bayer LeverkusenDFB Pokal · UTC
  5. Newcastle 1–2 Bayer LeverkusenFriendlies Clubs · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Lech Poznan

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
3.98 / 0.98
xG per match, for / against
3.98 / 0.98
Goals on this same sample
5 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom xG for / against Lech Poznan: 3.98 / 0.98 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 06:25 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 06:25 UTC.

Away matches

Bayer Leverkusen

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
1.69 / 2.87
xG per match, for / against
1.69 / 2.87
Goals on this same sample
4 / 3

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen xG for / against Bayer Leverkusen: 1.69 / 2.87 Statistics synced: team 14 Oct 2026 08:34 UTC; opponent 14 Oct 2026 08:34 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Lech Poznan

Reported absences

  • A. GholizadehMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • A. SayyadmaneshMissing Fixture · Groin Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • R. MurawskiMissing Fixture · Red Card Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • J. MoutinhoMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • A. DouglasMissing Fixture · Ankle Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Bayer Leverkusen

Reported absences

  • J. HofmannMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • V. BonifaceMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • G. DoueMissing Fixture · Calf Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • T. OermannMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • E. Ben SeghirQuestionable · Muscle Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • M. CulbreathMissing Fixture · Foot Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • K. EichhornMissing Fixture · Illness Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • C. KofaneMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Lech Poznan

5.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 15:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 35
Points / played
0 / 1

Table source synced 15 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Bayer Leverkusen

5.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 8
Points / played
3 / 1

Table source synced 15 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 15 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1636279
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
1c56aee25676fcb59a4c6f8d5f9e8ff878bcbc485ff58a10088b907cfaab1283