UEFA Europa League · 15 Oct 2026

Lyon vs Crystal PalaceMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: 15 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC.

Published 15 Oct 2026 · 00:20 UTC. This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 3–2 · regulation time

Result record v2 · recorded 16 Oct 2026 05:31 UTC. Source synced 15 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Result changes (1)

v1 · 2H Initial source observation · 15 Oct 2026 18:40 UTC Source synced 15 Oct 2026 18:40 UTC · source kickoff 15 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC
v2 · FT · 3–2 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 16 Oct 2026 05:31 UTC Source synced 15 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC · source kickoff 15 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 1.215 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win: 10%
Draw: 45%
Away win: 45%

Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 14 Oct 2026 20:24 UTC; synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC. Saved 15 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds: 2.21
Without margin: 43.85%
Provider estimate: 10.00%
Provider − market: -33.85 pp

Draw

Decimal odds: 3.72
Without margin: 26.05%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +18.95 pp

Away win

Decimal odds: 3.22
Without margin: 30.10%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +14.90 pp

Raw implied probability total: 103.19%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Lyon

WWDLW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 12 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency: 4/5 80%
BTTS frequency: 3/5 60%

Lyon scored 12 and conceded 4 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

19 Sep 2026Lyon 4–0 RennesLigue 1 · UTC
04 Sep 2026Lyon 3–1 AuxerreLigue 1 · UTC
29 Aug 2026Lyon 1–1 Le HavreLigue 1 · UTC
26 Aug 2026Lyon 1–2 FenerbahçeUEFA Champions League · UTC
11 Aug 2026Lyon 3–0 Sparta PrahaUEFA Champions League · UTC

Away matches

Crystal Palace

DWLLW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 5 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency: 3/5 60%
BTTS frequency: 2/5 40%

Crystal Palace scored 5 and conceded 8 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

20 Sep 2026Leeds 0–0 Crystal PalacePremier League · UTC
05 Sep 2026Fulham 2–3 Crystal PalacePremier League · UTC
22 Aug 2026Everton 2–0 Crystal PalacePremier League · UTC
15 Aug 2026SC Freiburg 3–0 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs · UTC
07 Aug 2026Fulham 1–2 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Lyon

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 4.83 / 2.03
xG per match, for / against: 2.42 / 1.02
Goals on this same sample: 5 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

19 Sep 2026 Lyon vs Rennes xG for / against Lyon: 3.13 / 1.37 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 09:55 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 09:55 UTC.
29 Aug 2026 Lyon vs Le Havre xG for / against Lyon: 1.70 / 0.66 Statistics synced: team 30 Aug 2026 02:18 UTC; opponent 30 Aug 2026 02:18 UTC.

Away matches

Crystal Palace

Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 1.06 / 1.31
xG per match, for / against: 1.06 / 1.31
Goals on this same sample: 0 / 0

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

20 Sep 2026 Leeds vs Crystal Palace xG for / against Crystal Palace: 1.06 / 1.31 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 22:06 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 22:06 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Lyon

Reported absences

L. OpendaMissing Fixture · Leg Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
N. TagliaficoMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
M. OuedraogoMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Crystal Palace

Reported absences

J. LermaMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
T. TomiyasuQuestionable · Calf Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
C. DoucoureMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
D. HendersonQuestionable · Foot Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
J. MatetaQuestionable · Hamstring Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
E. GuessandMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
C. RiadMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
Z. GozoMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Lyon

5.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 09 Oct 2026 18:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League: Position 11
Points / played: 3 / 1

Table source synced 15 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Crystal Palace

4.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 11 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League: Position 2
Points / played: 3 / 1

Table source synced 15 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 15 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record

Fixture ID: 1636293
Method: factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum: e4e030716fdefebe62df41f994738ad6385d1097fd3925396bc3600cafe763b3