UEFA Europa League · 22 Oct 2026

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta PrahaMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 1–0 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 23 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC. Source synced 22 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.635 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
35%
Draw
35%
Away win
30%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:29 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 22 Oct 2026 00:00 UTC; synced 22 Oct 2026 00:29 UTC. Saved 22 Oct 2026 00:31 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.53
Without margin
62.39%
Provider estimate
35.00%
Provider − market
-27.39 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
4.4
Without margin
21.70%
Provider estimate
35.00%
Provider − market
+13.30 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
6
Without margin
15.91%
Provider estimate
30.00%
Provider − market
+14.09 pp

Raw implied probability total: 104.75%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Olympiakos Piraeus

WWLWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Olympiakos Piraeus scored 7 and conceded 4 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 PanathinaikosSuper League 1 · UTC
  2. Olympiakos Piraeus 2–1 JagielloniaUEFA Europa League · UTC
  3. Olympiakos Piraeus 0–1 OFISuper League 1 · UTC
  4. Olympiakos Piraeus 3–2 Volos NFCCup · UTC
  5. Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 AtromitosSuper League 1 · UTC

Away matches

Sparta Praha

DWWWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
13 / 3
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Sparta Praha scored 13 and conceded 3 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Baník Ostrava 0–0 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga · UTC
  2. Sigma Olomouc 0–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga · UTC
  3. Ararat-Armenia 1–4 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa League · UTC
  4. Viktoria Žižkov 0–5 Sparta PrahaCup · UTC
  5. Hradec Králové 2–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Olympiakos Piraeus

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
6.43 / 1.29
xG per match, for / against
2.14 / 0.43
Goals on this same sample
4 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos xG for / against Olympiakos Piraeus: 0.73 / 0.47 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 18:55 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 18:55 UTC.
  2. Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia xG for / against Olympiakos Piraeus: 2.53 / 0.52 Statistics synced: team 01 Oct 2026 15:47 UTC; opponent 01 Oct 2026 15:47 UTC.
  3. Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos xG for / against Olympiakos Piraeus: 3.17 / 0.30 Statistics synced: team 23 Aug 2026 06:18 UTC; opponent 23 Aug 2026 06:18 UTC.

Away matches

Sparta Praha

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
4.61 / 3.00
xG per match, for / against
1.54 / 1.00
Goals on this same sample
4 / 2

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha xG for / against Sparta Praha: 1.64 / 0.99 Statistics synced: team 19 Oct 2026 14:15 UTC; opponent 19 Oct 2026 14:15 UTC.
  2. Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha xG for / against Sparta Praha: 1.88 / 0.86 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 22:14 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 22:14 UTC.
  3. Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha xG for / against Sparta Praha: 1.09 / 1.15 Statistics synced: team 07 Sep 2026 10:22 UTC; opponent 07 Sep 2026 10:22 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Olympiakos Piraeus

Reported absences

  • M. MouandilmadjiMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • L. BaileyMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • K. FortounisMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • A. El KaabiMissing Fixture · Broken Leg Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • Y. YaziciMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • B. PopovicMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • ClaytonMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • J. RocaMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • L. ScipioniMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sparta Praha

Reported absences

  • L. Mbe SohQuestionable · Health problems Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • E. CobbautMissing Fixture · Groin Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • M. AndersenMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • A. KarabecMissing Fixture · Ankle Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • M. RynesMissing Fixture · Ankle Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • E. UchennaMissing Fixture · Groin Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
  • O. PenxaMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Olympiakos Piraeus

4.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 10
Points / played
6 / 2

Table source synced 22 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Sparta Praha

4.3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 11
Points / played
4 / 2

Table source synced 22 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 22 Oct 2026 00:31 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1636308
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
6faae984319c9ae7b735370774b72af19a8df5f958051d737561b64a5aeec2a4