UEFA Europa League · 15 Oct 2026

Rennes vs OFIMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 2–1 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 16 Oct 2026 05:41 UTC. Source synced 15 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 1.500 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
0%
Draw
50%
Away win
50%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:16 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 14 Oct 2026 20:24 UTC; synced 15 Oct 2026 00:16 UTC. Saved 15 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.23
Without margin
77.71%
Provider estimate
0.00%
Provider − market
-77.71 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
6.6
Without margin
14.48%
Provider estimate
50.00%
Provider − market
+35.52 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
12.25
Without margin
7.80%
Provider estimate
50.00%
Provider − market
+42.20 pp

Raw implied probability total: 104.62%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Rennes

WWWDL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
12 / 9
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%

Rennes scored 12 and conceded 9 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Rennes 4–1 AuxerreLigue 1 · UTC
  2. Rennes 1–0 MarseilleLigue 1 · UTC
  3. Rennes 3–2 Le MansLigue 1 · UTC
  4. Rennes 2–2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1 · UTC
  5. Rennes 2–4 BrentfordFriendlies Clubs · UTC

Away matches

OFI

LWDLW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
4 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%

OFI scored 4 and conceded 5 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. AEK Athens FC 3–0 OFISuper League 1 · UTC
  2. Olympiakos Piraeus 0–1 OFISuper League 1 · UTC
  3. PAOK 0–0 OFICup · UTC
  4. Aris Thessalonikis 2–1 OFISuper League 1 · UTC
  5. CSKA Sofia 0–2 OFIUEFA Europa League · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Rennes

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
3.30 / 3.34
xG per match, for / against
1.65 / 1.67
Goals on this same sample
6 / 3

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Rennes vs Auxerre xG for / against Rennes: 2.56 / 1.76 Statistics synced: team 12 Oct 2026 20:35 UTC; opponent 12 Oct 2026 20:35 UTC.
  2. Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain xG for / against Rennes: 0.74 / 1.58 Statistics synced: team 23 Aug 2026 20:52 UTC; opponent 23 Aug 2026 20:52 UTC.

Away matches

OFI

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
1.55 / 3.42
xG per match, for / against
0.78 / 1.71
Goals on this same sample
1 / 5

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. AEK Athens FC vs OFI xG for / against OFI: 0.21 / 1.66 Statistics synced: team 14 Oct 2026 12:45 UTC; opponent 14 Oct 2026 12:45 UTC.
  2. Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI xG for / against OFI: 1.34 / 1.76 Statistics synced: team 31 Aug 2026 08:17 UTC; opponent 31 Aug 2026 08:17 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Rennes

Reported absences

  • A. NordinQuestionable · Inactive Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • Q. MerlinQuestionable · Inactive Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

OFI

Reported absences

  • N. MarinakisMissing Fixture · Groin Injury Record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Rennes

4.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 11 Oct 2026 15:15 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 18
Points / played
1 / 1

Table source synced 15 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

OFI

5.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 16:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 9
Points / played
3 / 1

Table source synced 15 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 15 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1636326
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
c0f6dee689fe3ddd81da3f2e6c1c5836f8b98851712e163d9b03b18d1accdc10