UEFA Europa League · 22 Oct 2026

Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer ShevaMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 4–0 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 23 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC. Source synced 22 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:16 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 21 Oct 2026 20:25 UTC; synced 22 Oct 2026 00:16 UTC. Saved 22 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.32
Without margin
72.42%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-27.42 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
5.6
Without margin
17.07%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+27.93 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
9.1
Without margin
10.51%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-0.51 pp

Raw implied probability total: 104.60%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Union St. Gilloise

WDDWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
13 / 2
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Union St. Gilloise scored 13 and conceded 2 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Union St. Gilloise 3–0 NijlenCup · UTC
  2. Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real SociedadUEFA Europa League · UTC
  3. Union St. Gilloise 1–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League · UTC
  4. Union St. Gilloise 5–0 Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro League · UTC
  5. Union St. Gilloise 3–0 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League · UTC

Away matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva

LWWWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
7 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Hapoel Beer Sheva scored 7 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Hapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Europa League · UTC
  2. Ironi Tiberias 0–2 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al · UTC
  3. Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–2 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al · UTC
  4. Hapoel Ramat Gan 1–2 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al · UTC
  5. Hapoel Haifa 4–0 Hapoel Beer ShevaToto Cup Ligat Al · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Union St. Gilloise

Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
8.08 / 4.10
xG per match, for / against
2.02 / 1.03
Goals on this same sample
10 / 2

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad xG for / against Union St. Gilloise: 1.92 / 0.76 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 18:25 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 18:25 UTC.
  2. Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven xG for / against Union St. Gilloise: 1.29 / 1.35 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 15:54 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 15:54 UTC.
  3. Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United xG for / against Union St. Gilloise: 3.27 / 0.65 Statistics synced: team 28 Sep 2026 18:45 UTC; opponent 28 Sep 2026 18:45 UTC.
  4. Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht xG for / against Union St. Gilloise: 1.60 / 1.34 Statistics synced: team 31 Aug 2026 08:17 UTC; opponent 31 Aug 2026 08:17 UTC.

Away matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
2.95 / 4.60
xG per match, for / against
1.48 / 2.30
Goals on this same sample
3 / 2

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva xG for / against Hapoel Beer Sheva: 1.09 / 2.75 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 18:25 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 18:25 UTC.
  2. Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva xG for / against Hapoel Beer Sheva: 1.86 / 1.85 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 06:18 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 06:18 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Union St. Gilloise

Reported absences

  • A. ZorganeQuestionable · Knock Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • K. Mac AllisterMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • R. SchoofsMissing Fixture · Knock Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • R. SykesMissing Fixture · Shoulder Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • A. Ait El HadjMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • I. PavlicMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • K. RodriguezMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • O. KricfalusiMissing Fixture · Knock Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • I. HurteventMissing Fixture · Knock Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Reported absences

  • D. BitonMissing Fixture · Heart Problems Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • Lucas VenturaQuestionable · Muscle Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • I. NachmiasQuestionable · Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • I. RotmanQuestionable · Knee Injury Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.
  • Y. StoyanovMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Union St. Gilloise

4.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 11:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 12
Points / played
4 / 2

Table source synced 22 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Hapoel Beer Sheva

4 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 17:15 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 25
Points / played
1 / 2

Table source synced 22 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 22 Oct 2026 00:21 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1636330
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
1854b9106c69c6dff59d27498b4e54e2a4704ba01c6b9fff82454f77452589fc