Home win
- Decimal odds
- 1.56
- Without margin
- 61.34%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- -16.34 pp
UEFA Europa League · 05 Nov 2026
Sturm Graz vs CeljeMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.
Recorded match result
Result pending — kickoff has not passed.
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 45%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 10%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:30 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 04 Nov 2026 20:13 UTC; synced 05 Nov 2026 00:30 UTC. Saved 05 Nov 2026 00:30 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 4.5
- Without margin
- 21.26%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +23.74 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 5.5
- Without margin
- 17.40%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -7.40 pp
Raw implied probability total: 104.51%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Sturm Graz
DWWWD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 12 / 4
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 3/5 60%
- BTTS frequency
- 3/5 60%
Sturm Graz scored 12 and conceded 4 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Sturm Graz 2–2 RiedBundesliga · UTC
- Sturm Graz 1–0 MarseilleUEFA Europa League · UTC
- Sturm Graz 6–1 Grazer AKBundesliga · UTC
- Sturm Graz 3–1 Floridsdorfer ACFriendlies Clubs · UTC
- Sturm Graz 0–0 RennesUEFA Europa League · UTC
Away matches
Celje
DWDDL
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 3 / 3
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 0/5 0%
- BTTS frequency
- 1/5 20%
Celje scored 3 and conceded 3 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Olimpija Ljubljana 1–1 Celje1. SNL · UTC
- Korotan Prevalje 0–2 CeljeCup · UTC
- Maribor 0–0 Celje1. SNL · UTC
- Mura 0–0 Celje1. SNL · UTC
- Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 CeljeUEFA Europa League · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Sturm Graz
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 7.18 / 2.75
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.39 / 0.92
- Goals on this same sample
- 9 / 3
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Sturm Graz vs Ried xG for / against Sturm Graz: 1.87 / 1.35 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 19:55 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 19:55 UTC.
- Sturm Graz vs Marseille xG for / against Sturm Graz: 1.87 / 0.80 Statistics synced: team 29 Oct 2026 22:35 UTC; opponent 29 Oct 2026 22:35 UTC.
- Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK xG for / against Sturm Graz: 3.44 / 0.60 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 19:36 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 19:36 UTC.
Away matches
Celje
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 0.90 / 1.93
- xG per match, for / against
- 0.90 / 1.93
- Goals on this same sample
- 0 / 2
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje xG for / against Celje: 0.90 / 1.93 Statistics synced: team 01 Oct 2026 15:47 UTC; opponent 01 Oct 2026 15:47 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Sturm Graz
Reported absences
- O. KiteishviliMissing Fixture · Calf Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- S. WlodarczykMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- N. GeyrhoferMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- S. JattaMissing Fixture · Shoulder Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- G. MamageishviliMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- D. KhudyakovMissing Fixture · Leg Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- N. WeiperMissing Fixture · Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- E. SogloMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- L. GrgicMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- F. RozgaMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Celje
Reported absences
- S. SlugaMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- D. VuklisevicMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- R. PozegMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- I. CalusicMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- J. PisekMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
- Z. L. SegaMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Sturm Graz
4.3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 01 Nov 2026 13:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- UEFA Europa League
- Position 19
- Points / played
- 4 / 3
Table source synced 05 Nov 2026 00:18 UTC.
Celje
4.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 01 Nov 2026 16:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- UEFA Europa League
- Position 29
- Points / played
- 1 / 3
Table source synced 05 Nov 2026 00:18 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 05 Nov 2026 00:30 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1636339
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- 4dc53a6dae888da4804461da22e11367383b1b633bc2f6b3c98e05f057f867bc