UEFA Europa League · 05 Nov 2026

Sunderland vs Dinamo ZagrebMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.

Recorded match result

Result pending — kickoff has not passed.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:29 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 04 Nov 2026 20:13 UTC; synced 05 Nov 2026 00:29 UTC. Saved 05 Nov 2026 00:30 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
1.45
Without margin
65.92%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
-20.92 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
4.75
Without margin
20.12%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+24.88 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
6.85
Without margin
13.95%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-3.95 pp

Raw implied probability total: 104.62%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Sunderland

WDLWL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
4 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency
1/5 20%
BTTS frequency
1/5 20%

Sunderland scored 4 and conceded 6 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Sunderland 3–2 BrentfordLeague Cup · UTC
  2. Sunderland 0–0 LeedsPremier League · UTC
  3. Sunderland 0–2 BrightonPremier League · UTC
  4. Sunderland 1–0 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League · UTC
  5. Sunderland 0–2 ArsenalPremier League · UTC

Away matches

Dinamo Zagreb

LWLWD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
10 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

Dinamo Zagreb scored 10 and conceded 4 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Rudes 1–0 Dinamo ZagrebHNL · UTC
  2. NK Slaven Belupo 1–5 Dinamo ZagrebHNL · UTC
  3. HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Dinamo ZagrebHNL · UTC
  4. Vukovar 0–4 Dinamo ZagrebCup · UTC
  5. Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–0 Dinamo ZagrebUEFA Europa League · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Sunderland

Paired xG coverage: 5 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
8.66 / 8.31
xG per match, for / against
1.73 / 1.66
Goals on this same sample
4 / 6

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Sunderland vs Brentford xG for / against Sunderland: 2.41 / 2.77 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 13:35 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 13:35 UTC.
  2. Sunderland vs Leeds xG for / against Sunderland: 0.83 / 0.76 Statistics synced: team 03 Nov 2026 22:55 UTC; opponent 03 Nov 2026 22:55 UTC.
  3. Sunderland vs Brighton xG for / against Sunderland: 0.72 / 1.41 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 03:55 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 03:55 UTC.
  4. Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar xG for / against Sunderland: 2.90 / 1.49 Statistics synced: team 01 Oct 2026 15:47 UTC; opponent 01 Oct 2026 15:47 UTC.
  5. Sunderland vs Arsenal xG for / against Sunderland: 1.80 / 1.88 Statistics synced: team 28 Sep 2026 18:45 UTC; opponent 28 Sep 2026 18:45 UTC.

Away matches

Dinamo Zagreb

Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
7.70 / 4.25
xG per match, for / against
2.57 / 1.42
Goals on this same sample
6 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Rudes vs Dinamo Zagreb xG for / against Dinamo Zagreb: 2.60 / 1.09 Statistics synced: team 04 Nov 2026 18:55 UTC; opponent 04 Nov 2026 18:55 UTC.
  2. NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb xG for / against Dinamo Zagreb: 3.71 / 2.11 Statistics synced: team 27 Oct 2026 20:35 UTC; opponent 27 Oct 2026 20:35 UTC.
  3. HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb xG for / against Dinamo Zagreb: 1.39 / 1.05 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 02:15 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 02:15 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Sunderland

Reported absences

  • N. MukieleQuestionable · Concussion Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • A. BrowneMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • D. BallardMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • M. EllborgMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • R. MundleMissing Fixture · Knee Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • H. DiarraMissing Fixture · Muscle Injury Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • C. TalbiMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • J. Ta BiMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • J. AnguloMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Dinamo Zagreb

Reported absences

  • R. MudrazijaMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • S. RadeljicQuestionable · Inactive Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • I. NevisticMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • S. McKennaMissing Fixture · Inactive Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • P. TabinasMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • F. TopicMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.
  • N. NsokiMissing Fixture · Off the roster Record synced 05 Nov 2026 00:16 UTC.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Sunderland

5.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 31 Oct 2026 15:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 9
Points / played
7 / 3

Table source synced 05 Nov 2026 00:18 UTC.

Dinamo Zagreb

5.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 31 Oct 2026 17:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Europa League
Position 18
Points / played
4 / 3

Table source synced 05 Nov 2026 00:18 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 05 Nov 2026 00:30 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1636345
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
1c8dcd886851b8125a0623417a2b95be6cdfac391743676d7ffbed59dc1bbc77