Home win
- Decimal odds
- 2.08
- Without margin
- 44.69%
- Provider estimate
- 10.00%
- Provider − market
- -34.69 pp
UEFA Europa Conference League · 22 Oct 2026
Ajax vs AtalantaMatch analysis
Scheduled kickoff: .
Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 2–0 · regulation time
Result record v1 · recorded 23 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC. Source synced 22 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.
Saved forecast evaluation
Brier score: 1.215 · lower is better (0–2)
Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.
How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
- Home win
- 10%
- Draw
- 45%
- Away win
- 45%
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
Provider record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.
Source updated 22 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC; synced 22 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. Saved 22 Oct 2026 00:31 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.
Draw
- Decimal odds
- 3.7
- Without margin
- 25.12%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +19.88 pp
Away win
- Decimal odds
- 3.08
- Without margin
- 30.18%
- Provider estimate
- 45.00%
- Provider − market
- +14.82 pp
Raw implied probability total: 107.57%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.
The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Ajax
DDWLW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 14 / 10
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 4/5 80%
- BTTS frequency
- 5/5 100%
Ajax scored 14 and conceded 10 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- Ajax 1–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie · UTC
- Ajax 2–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie · UTC
- Ajax 5–1 Willem IIEredivisie · UTC
- Ajax 1–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie · UTC
- Ajax 5–3 FC SionUEFA Europa Conference League · UTC
Away matches
Atalanta
LLLWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
- Sample size
- 5 matches
- Goals scored / conceded
- 7 / 7
- Over 2.5 frequency
- 3/5 60%
- BTTS frequency
- 2/5 40%
Atalanta scored 7 and conceded 7 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
- AC Milan 3–2 AtalantaSerie A · UTC
- Juventus 2–0 AtalantaSerie A · UTC
- AS Roma 2–1 AtalantaSerie A · UTC
- Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–1 AtalantaUEFA Europa Conference League · UTC
- FC Schalke 04 0–3 AtalantaFriendlies Clubs · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Ajax
Paired xG coverage: 3 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 8.08 / 3.45
- xG per match, for / against
- 2.69 / 1.15
- Goals on this same sample
- 8 / 4
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen xG for / against Ajax: 1.78 / 1.05 Statistics synced: team 20 Oct 2026 08:25 UTC; opponent 20 Oct 2026 08:25 UTC.
- Ajax vs Excelsior xG for / against Ajax: 2.51 / 0.82 Statistics synced: team 05 Oct 2026 08:25 UTC; opponent 05 Oct 2026 08:25 UTC.
- Ajax vs Willem II xG for / against Ajax: 3.79 / 1.58 Statistics synced: team 01 Oct 2026 06:07 UTC; opponent 01 Oct 2026 06:07 UTC.
Away matches
Atalanta
Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.
- xG for / against
- 2.34 / 3.89
- xG per match, for / against
- 1.17 / 1.95
- Goals on this same sample
- 2 / 5
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
- AC Milan vs Atalanta xG for / against Atalanta: 1.74 / 2.58 Statistics synced: team 19 Oct 2026 17:24 UTC; opponent 19 Oct 2026 17:24 UTC.
- Juventus vs Atalanta xG for / against Atalanta: 0.60 / 1.31 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 04:25 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 04:25 UTC.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Ajax
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Atalanta
Reported absences
- Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Ajax
4.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 14:45 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- UEFA Conference League
- Position 25
- Points / played
- 0 / 1
Table source synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
Atalanta
4.1 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
- UEFA Conference League
- Position 4
- Points / played
- 3 / 1
Table source synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
- No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 22 Oct 2026 00:31 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.
Read our data and publication methodology
Publication record
- Fixture ID
- 1636379
- Method
- factual-analysis-v1
- Content checksum
- fc81ac31ac27a9d8fd30f8aee2342edb92c847f4cc28a93ef698705c25f71715