UEFA Europa Conference League · 15 Oct 2026

HNK Hajduk Split vs AjaxMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 2–1 · regulation time

Result record v2 · recorded 16 Oct 2026 05:41 UTC. Source synced 15 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Result changes (1)
  1. v1 · 2H Initial source observation · 15 Oct 2026 18:40 UTC Source synced 15 Oct 2026 18:40 UTC · source kickoff 15 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC
  2. v2 · FT · 2–1 Source status, score or kickoff changed · 16 Oct 2026 05:41 UTC Source synced 15 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC · source kickoff 15 Oct 2026 16:45 UTC

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Home win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v2. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
45%
Draw
45%
Away win
10%
Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 14 Oct 2026 20:23 UTC; synced 15 Oct 2026 00:15 UTC. Saved 15 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
5.15
Without margin
18.07%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+26.93 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
4.25
Without margin
21.90%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+23.10 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
1.55
Without margin
60.04%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-50.04 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.46%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

HNK Hajduk Split

WWWWD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
11 / 3
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

HNK Hajduk Split scored 11 and conceded 3 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Dinamo ZagrebHNL · UTC
  2. HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL · UTC
  3. HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL · UTC
  4. HNK Hajduk Split 4–0 NK OsijekHNL · UTC
  5. HNK Hajduk Split 2–2 Raków CzęstochowaUEFA Europa Conference League · UTC

Away matches

Ajax

WWWDW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
17 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%

Ajax scored 17 and conceded 5 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. Fortuna Sittard 1–5 AjaxEredivisie · UTC
  2. Telstar 0–4 AjaxEredivisie · UTC
  3. FC Sion 2–4 AjaxUEFA Europa Conference League · UTC
  4. Shelbourne 2–2 AjaxUEFA Europa Conference League · UTC
  5. PEC Zwolle 0–2 AjaxEredivisie · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

HNK Hajduk Split

Paired xG coverage: 4 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
5.80 / 2.65
xG per match, for / against
1.45 / 0.66
Goals on this same sample
9 / 1

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb xG for / against HNK Hajduk Split: 1.05 / 1.39 Statistics synced: team 14 Oct 2026 07:16 UTC; opponent 14 Oct 2026 07:16 UTC.
  2. HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo xG for / against HNK Hajduk Split: 0.68 / 0.36 Statistics synced: team 29 Sep 2026 08:09 UTC; opponent 29 Sep 2026 08:09 UTC.
  3. HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb xG for / against HNK Hajduk Split: 2.41 / 0.40 Statistics synced: team 31 Aug 2026 18:32 UTC; opponent 31 Aug 2026 18:32 UTC.
  4. HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek xG for / against HNK Hajduk Split: 1.66 / 0.50 Statistics synced: team 23 Aug 2026 22:20 UTC; opponent 23 Aug 2026 22:20 UTC.

Away matches

Ajax

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
3.60 / 1.72
xG per match, for / against
1.80 / 0.86
Goals on this same sample
6 / 0

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. Telstar vs Ajax xG for / against Ajax: 2.06 / 1.13 Statistics synced: team 30 Aug 2026 16:52 UTC; opponent 30 Aug 2026 16:52 UTC.
  2. PEC Zwolle vs Ajax xG for / against Ajax: 1.54 / 0.59 Statistics synced: team 10 Aug 2026 12:19 UTC; opponent 10 Aug 2026 12:19 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

HNK Hajduk Split

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Ajax

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

HNK Hajduk Split

5.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Conference League
Position 14
Points / played
0 / 0

Table source synced 14 Oct 2026 23:25 UTC.

Ajax

4.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 19:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Conference League
Position 9
Points / played
0 / 0

Table source synced 14 Oct 2026 23:25 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 15 Oct 2026 00:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1636419
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
6453b359e062d550a040026a63434f4dcf95bb366773bf259768a70de2854956