UEFA Europa Conference League · 22 Oct 2026

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk SplitMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: .

Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 0–1 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 23 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. Source synced 22 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Away win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win
10%
Draw
45%
Away win
45%
Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 22 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 22 Oct 2026 00:17 UTC; synced 22 Oct 2026 00:30 UTC. Saved 22 Oct 2026 00:31 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds
2.7
Without margin
34.48%
Provider estimate
10.00%
Provider − market
-24.48 pp

Draw

Decimal odds
3.42
Without margin
27.22%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+17.78 pp

Away win

Decimal odds
2.43
Without margin
38.31%
Provider estimate
45.00%
Provider − market
+6.69 pp

Raw implied probability total: 107.43%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

FC Thun

WLDDL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
6 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency
2/5 40%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

FC Thun scored 6 and conceded 7 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. FC Thun 2–0 SC KriensFriendlies Clubs · UTC
  2. FC Thun 0–1 GrasshoppersSuper League · UTC
  3. FC Thun 0–0 LausanneSuper League · UTC
  4. FC Thun 2–2 Lech PoznanUEFA Europa League · UTC
  5. FC Thun 2–4 Servette FCSuper League · UTC

Away matches

HNK Hajduk Split

LWWWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
13 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency
4/5 80%
BTTS frequency
2/5 40%

HNK Hajduk Split scored 13 and conceded 6 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures
  1. HNK Rijeka 3–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL · UTC
  2. Vardarac 0–2 HNK Hajduk SplitCup · UTC
  3. Rudes 0–4 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL · UTC
  4. HNK Gorica 1–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL · UTC
  5. FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–5 HNK Hajduk SplitUEFA Europa Conference League · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

FC Thun

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

HNK Hajduk Split

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against
2.48 / 2.73
xG per match, for / against
1.24 / 1.37
Goals on this same sample
2 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample
  1. HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split xG for / against HNK Hajduk Split: 1.28 / 1.46 Statistics synced: team 06 Oct 2026 03:15 UTC; opponent 06 Oct 2026 03:15 UTC.
  2. HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split xG for / against HNK Hajduk Split: 1.20 / 1.27 Statistics synced: team 16 Aug 2026 22:19 UTC; opponent 16 Aug 2026 22:19 UTC.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

FC Thun

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

HNK Hajduk Split

Reported absences

  • Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

FC Thun

4.2 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Conference League
Position 30
Points / played
0 / 1

Table source synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.

HNK Hajduk Split

4.3 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 18 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

UEFA Conference League
Position 10
Points / played
3 / 1

Table source synced 22 Oct 2026 00:24 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

  1. No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 22 Oct 2026 00:31 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record
Fixture ID
1636474
Method
factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum
abaabd4d438072b78ba82f9bc5ee0cf0b2da05b233ef7a08f723b04969b3e887