Liga Pro · 09 Nov 2026

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SCMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: 09 Nov 2026 · 18:00 UTC.

Published 09 Nov 2026 · 00:20 UTC. This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.

Recorded match result

Result pending — kickoff has not passed.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win: 10%
Draw: 45%
Away win: 45%

Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 09 Nov 2026 00:15 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 09 Nov 2026 00:00 UTC; synced 09 Nov 2026 00:15 UTC. Saved 09 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds: 1.61
Without margin: 55.56%
Provider estimate: 10.00%
Provider − market: -45.56 pp

Draw

Decimal odds: 3.52
Without margin: 25.41%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +19.59 pp

Away win

Decimal odds: 4.7
Without margin: 19.03%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +25.97 pp

Raw implied probability total: 111.80%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Mushuc Runa SC

LDDWD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 5 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency: 1/5 20%
BTTS frequency: 3/5 60%

Mushuc Runa SC scored 5 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

03 Nov 2026Mushuc Runa SC 2–3 Manta FCLiga Pro · UTC
19 Oct 2026Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Orense SCLiga Pro · UTC
06 Sep 2026Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Leones del NorteLiga Pro · UTC
30 Aug 2026Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro · UTC
16 Aug 2026Mushuc Runa SC 0–0 Barcelona SCLiga Pro · UTC

Away matches

Delfin SC

LLDWD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 4 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency: 1/5 20%
BTTS frequency: 2/5 40%

Delfin SC scored 4 and conceded 8 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

06 Nov 2026Independiente del Valle 2–0 Delfin SCCopa Ecuador · UTC
24 Oct 2026Orense SC 4–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro · UTC
20 Sep 2026Tecnico Universitario 1–1 Delfin SCLiga Pro · UTC
17 Sep 2026LDU Portoviejo 0–2 Delfin SCCopa Ecuador · UTC
13 Sep 2026Barcelona SC 1–1 Delfin SCLiga Pro · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Mushuc Runa SC

Paired xG coverage: 2 of 5 form matches.

xG for / against: 4.18 / 3.10
xG per match, for / against: 2.09 / 1.55
Goals on this same sample: 3 / 4

Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.

Inspect the xG sample

03 Nov 2026 Mushuc Runa SC vs Manta FC xG for / against Mushuc Runa SC: 2.67 / 1.99 Statistics synced: team 06 Nov 2026 21:45 UTC; opponent 06 Nov 2026 21:45 UTC.
19 Oct 2026 Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC xG for / against Mushuc Runa SC: 1.51 / 1.11 Statistics synced: team 04 Nov 2026 07:15 UTC; opponent 04 Nov 2026 07:15 UTC.

Away matches

Delfin SC

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Mushuc Runa SC

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Delfin SC

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Mushuc Runa SC

5.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 03 Nov 2026 20:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Liga Pro: Regular season: Position 11
Points / played: 38 / 30

Table source synced 08 Nov 2026 21:19 UTC.

Liga Pro: Relegation Group: Position 12
Points / played: 40 / 35

Table source synced 08 Nov 2026 21:19 UTC.

Delfin SC

3.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 06 Nov 2026 00:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Liga Pro: Regular season: Position 15
Points / played: 28 / 30

Table source synced 08 Nov 2026 21:19 UTC.

Liga Pro: Relegation Group: Position 14
Points / played: 38 / 35

Table source synced 08 Nov 2026 21:19 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

09 Oct 2026Delfin SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro · UTC
28 Aug 2026Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro · UTC
03 May 2026Delfin SC 1–0 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro · UTC
15 Jun 2025Delfin SC 3–1 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro · UTC
18 Feb 2025Mushuc Runa SC 2–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 09 Nov 2026 00:20 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record

Fixture ID: 1639834
Method: factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum: c69d84eb5db54e5e5c9008fffbf3c4f8bc6cb7a57fd946bbd94d3e742a07e0b6