Published . This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.
Recorded match result
Full time: 4–0· regulation time
Result record v2 · recorded 18 Oct 2026 07:01 UTC. Source synced 17 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC.
Result changes (1)
v1 · 1H
Initial source observation · 17 Oct 2026 17:00 UTC
Source synced 17 Oct 2026 17:00 UTC · source kickoff 17 Oct 2026 16:30 UTC
v2 · FT · 4–0
Source status, score or kickoff changed · 18 Oct 2026 07:01 UTC
Source synced 17 Oct 2026 23:59 UTC · source kickoff 17 Oct 2026 16:30 UTC
Saved forecast evaluation
Forecast evaluation: N/A — complete saved probabilities are unavailable.
Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.
Provider model
Estimates saved at publication
Home win
N/A
Draw
N/A
Away win
N/A
Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.
A complete, recent probability distribution was not available at publication. Confidence: N/A.
Pre-match 1X2 snapshot
Odds saved at publication
Saved odds: N/A. No complete, verified 1X2 market from the previous 24 hours was available at publication.
No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.
Observed results · not forecast probabilities
Form & goals
Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.
Home matches
Libertad
WLDWW
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
9 / 5
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
3/5 60%
Libertad scored 9 and conceded 5 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 3 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Libertad 3–0 Leones del NorteLiga Pro · UTC
Libertad 2–3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro · UTC
Libertad 1–1 EmelecLiga Pro · UTC
Libertad 1–0 MacaraLiga Pro · UTC
Libertad 2–1 Universidad CatolicaLiga Pro · UTC
Away matches
Guayaquil City FC
LLWLD
Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss
Sample size
5 matches
Goals scored / conceded
8 / 10
Over 2.5 frequency
3/5 60%
BTTS frequency
4/5 80%
Guayaquil City FC scored 8 and conceded 10 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.
Inspect the matches behind these figures
Orense SC 4–3 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro · UTC
Deportivo Cuenca 1–0 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro · UTC
Tecnico Universitario 2–3 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro · UTC
Macara 2–1 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro · UTC
Leones del Norte 1–1 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro · UTC
The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.
Historical shot-quality estimates
Expected goals (xG)
Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.
Home matches
Libertad
Paired xG coverage: 1 of 5 form matches.
xG for / against
2.12 / 1.03
xG per match, for / against
2.12 / 1.03
Goals on this same sample
3 / 0
Only matches with valid xG for both teams count. This small sample may not represent the full form sample; it does not establish luck or future performance.
Inspect the xG sample
Libertad vs Leones del NortexG for / against Libertad: 2.12 / 1.03
Statistics synced: team 16 Oct 2026 20:06 UTC; opponent 16 Oct 2026 20:06 UTC.
Away matches
Guayaquil City FC
Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.
xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.
Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.
Provider-reported team news
Absences & lineups
Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.
Libertad
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Guayaquil City FC
Reported absences
Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.
Provider-reported lineup
Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.
Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.
Verifiable context
Table & schedule
Libertad
7.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 09 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Liga Pro: Regular season
Position 7
Points / played
41 / 30
Table source synced 17 Oct 2026 05:19 UTC.
Liga Pro: Placement Group
Position 7
Points / played
47 / 32
Table source synced 17 Oct 2026 05:19 UTC.
Guayaquil City FC
6.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.
Previous kickoff: 10 Oct 2026 21:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.
Liga Pro: Regular season
Position 9
Points / played
39 / 30
Table source synced 17 Oct 2026 05:19 UTC.
Liga Pro: Placement Group
Position 8
Points / played
43 / 32
Table source synced 17 Oct 2026 05:19 UTC.
Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.
Head-to-head
Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.
No eligible head-to-head records were supplied.
Sources & limitations
Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 17 Oct 2026 06:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.
Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.