Australian Championship · 15 Nov 2026

Sutherland Sharks vs Canberra FCMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: 15 Nov 2026 · 04:00 UTC.

Published 15 Nov 2026 · 00:10 UTC. This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. It is not a live feed.

Recorded match result

Result pending — kickoff has not passed.

Saved forecast evaluation

Forecast evaluation: N/A — no confirmed regulation-time result.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win: 45%
Draw: 45%
Away win: 10%

Equal top estimates: Home / Draw

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 15 Nov 2026 00:09 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 14 Nov 2026 22:05 UTC; synced 15 Nov 2026 00:09 UTC. Saved 15 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds: 1.51
Without margin: 61.01%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: -16.01 pp

Draw

Decimal odds: 4.33
Without margin: 21.28%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +23.72 pp

Away win

Decimal odds: 5.2
Without margin: 17.72%
Provider estimate: 10.00%
Provider − market: -7.72 pp

Raw implied probability total: 108.55%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Sutherland Sharks

LLLWD

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 5 / 7
Over 2.5 frequency: 3/5 60%
BTTS frequency: 4/5 80%

Sutherland Sharks scored 5 and conceded 7 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 4 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

31 Oct 2026Sutherland Sharks 1–2 Sydney UnitedAustralian Championship · UTC
17 Oct 2026Sutherland Sharks 0–1 South MelbourneAustralian Championship · UTC
30 Aug 2026Sutherland Sharks 1–2 SD RaidersNew South Wales NPL · UTC
22 Aug 2026Sutherland Sharks 2–1 St George City FANew South Wales NPL · UTC
08 Aug 2026Sutherland Sharks 1–1 Sydney FC U23New South Wales NPL · UTC

Away matches

Canberra FC

WDWWW

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 15 / 6
Over 2.5 frequency: 4/5 80%
BTTS frequency: 5/5 100%

Canberra FC scored 15 and conceded 6 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 5 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

15 Aug 2026Monaro Panthers 2–3 Canberra FCCapital Territory NPL · UTC
20 Jun 2026Cooma Tigers FC 1–1 Canberra FCCapital Territory NPL · UTC
13 Jun 2026Canberra White Eagles 1–2 Canberra FCCapital Territory NPL · UTC
30 May 2026Belconnen United 1–4 Canberra FCCapital Territory NPL · UTC
16 May 2026O'Connor Knights 1–5 Canberra FCCapital Territory NPL · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Sutherland Sharks

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

Canberra FC

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Sutherland Sharks

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Canberra FC

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Sutherland Sharks

7.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 07 Nov 2026 08:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Australian Championship: Position 3
Points / played: 4 / 4

Table source synced 14 Nov 2026 23:40 UTC.

Canberra FC

8.8 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 06 Nov 2026 08:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Australian Championship: Position 4
Points / played: 4 / 4

Table source synced 14 Nov 2026 23:40 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

24 Oct 2026Canberra FC 0–2 Sutherland SharksAustralian Championship · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 15 Nov 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record

Fixture ID: 1640367
Method: factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum: 5dccc0656ed6d9d287d8266464236ec9f49a8307ac34fbc72fd31039e2a2e0ef