Azadegan League · 12 Oct 2026

Mes Kerman vs Mes RafsanjanMatch analysis

Scheduled kickoff: 12 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC.

Published 12 Oct 2026 · 00:10 UTC. This saved pre-match analysis is preserved as published. Kickoff has passed; recorded results and forecast evaluation appear separately below.

Recorded match result

Full time: 0–1 · regulation time

Result record v1 · recorded 12 Oct 2026 18:10 UTC. Source synced 12 Oct 2026 18:09 UTC.

Saved forecast evaluation

Brier score: 0.515 · lower is better (0–2)

Observed outcome: Away win. Equal top estimates — no single most likely outcome; excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Calculated from the original Provider model probabilities and result record v1. Later result corrections can change this evaluation; the original probabilities stay unchanged. This score does not measure betting profit.

How this score is calculated · View aggregate Provider model performance. Performance uses its displayed reporting cutoff, so an earlier report can use a different result revision.

Observed from the sports database separately from the original pre-match publication. Extra-time, shootout and awarded results are not treated as confirmed regulation-time scores. This is not a betting settlement.

Provider model

Estimates saved at publication

Home win: 10%
Draw: 45%
Away win: 45%

Equal top estimates: Draw / Away

Regulation-time 1X2 estimates. No betting selection was published from this distribution; this analysis does not contribute to wins, losses or ROI. Saved probabilities are evaluated on Performance; equal top estimates have no single most likely outcome and are excluded from highest-probability accuracy.

Provider record synced 12 Oct 2026 00:08 UTC. Confidence: N/A.

Pre-match 1X2 snapshot

Odds saved at publication

Marathonbet · Match Winner · decimal odds.

Source updated 11 Oct 2026 21:39 UTC; synced 12 Oct 2026 00:08 UTC. Saved 12 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC. These are historical quotes, not currently available prices.

Home win

Decimal odds: 2.62
Without margin: 34.00%
Provider estimate: 10.00%
Provider − market: -24.00 pp

Draw

Decimal odds: 2.65
Without margin: 33.61%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +11.39 pp

Away win

Decimal odds: 2.75
Without margin: 32.39%
Provider estimate: 45.00%
Provider − market: +12.61 pp

Raw implied probability total: 112.27%. Each margin-adjusted value is (1 ÷ odds) divided by the sum for all three outcomes. This proportional adjustment is a comparison baseline, not a verified true probability.

The bookmaker is selected by the lowest provider ID with a complete valid market, independently of price or the Provider model. Percentage-point differences are descriptive; they do not establish an edge, expected profit or a betting recommendation.

No odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot. Saved prices do not create a betting selection or an ROI record.

Observed results · not forecast probabilities

Form & goals

Up to five completed matches at the relevant venue in the previous year, across all competitions. Only FT results are included; extra-time and penalty-shootout matches are excluded.

Home matches

Mes Kerman

LDDDL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 2 / 4
Over 2.5 frequency: 1/5 20%
BTTS frequency: 2/5 40%

Mes Kerman scored 2 and conceded 4 across these 5 home matches. Both teams scored in 2 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

22 Sep 2026Mes Kerman 0–1 SaipaAzadegan League · UTC
03 Jul 2026Mes Kerman 0–0 Naft Bandar AbbasAzadegan League · UTC
21 Jun 2026Mes Kerman 1–1 Pars Jonoubi JAMAzadegan League · UTC
09 Jun 2026Mes Kerman 0–0 Naft GachsaranAzadegan League · UTC
14 Mar 2026Mes Kerman 1–2 Nassaji MazandaranAzadegan League · UTC

Away matches

Mes Rafsanjan

DWLLL

Newest first · W win, D draw, L loss

Sample size: 5 matches
Goals scored / conceded: 3 / 8
Over 2.5 frequency: 1/5 20%
BTTS frequency: 1/5 20%

Mes Rafsanjan scored 3 and conceded 8 across these 5 away matches. Both teams scored in 1 of them.

Inspect the matches behind these figures

22 Sep 2026Mes Soongoun 0–0 Mes RafsanjanAzadegan League · UTC
14 Feb 2026Paykan 0–2 Mes RafsanjanPersian Gulf Pro League · UTC
01 Feb 2026Shams Azar Qazvin 2–0 Mes RafsanjanPersian Gulf Pro League · UTC
22 Jan 2026Tractor Sazi 4–1 Mes RafsanjanPersian Gulf Pro League · UTC
15 Dec 2025Gol Gohar 2–0 Mes RafsanjanPersian Gulf Pro League · UTC

The samples may differ in strength of opposition and size. Historical frequencies describe these matches; they are not Over 2.5 or BTTS predictions.

Historical shot-quality estimates

Expected goals (xG)

Provider-supplied xG for the same recent home and away matches shown above. This describes past chances, not the expected score of the upcoming match.

Home matches

Mes Kerman

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Away matches

Mes Rafsanjan

Paired xG coverage: 0 of 5 form matches.

xG: N/A. No complete, valid pair was available for these matches at publication.

Missing values are excluded, never treated as zero. Provider xG methodology and model version are undisclosed; these figures are not claimed as inputs to the Provider model forecast.

Provider-reported team news

Absences & lineups

Saved at publication. These reports may be incomplete or later corrected; they are not live availability updates.

Mes Kerman

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Mes Rafsanjan

Reported absences

Absences: N/A. No eligible records were available. This does not confirm a fully available squad.

Provider-reported lineup

Lineup: N/A. A complete, eligible starting XI was not available at publication.

Sync time records collection, not the provider's publication time or proof of completeness. No injury impact score, key-player ranking or probability adjustment is inferred.

Verifiable context

Table & schedule

Mes Kerman

7 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 05 Oct 2026 11:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Regular Season: Position 13
Points / played: 3 / 4

Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 21:18 UTC.

Mes Rafsanjan

6.9 days between the previous completed match's kickoff and this scheduled kickoff.

Previous kickoff: 05 Oct 2026 13:30 UTC. Includes completed matches at either venue, including extra time or penalties.

Regular Season: Position 4
Points / played: 8 / 4

Table source synced 11 Oct 2026 21:18 UTC.

Kickoff gaps are not measured recovery time. Table position alone does not establish motivation, rotation or tactical intent.

Head-to-head

Up to five FT meetings from the previous five years, newest first. Past meetings do not establish a current tactical advantage.

24 Apr 2023Mes Rafsanjan 1–0 Mes KermanPersian Gulf Pro League · UTC
19 Dec 2022Mes Kerman 0–2 Mes RafsanjanPersian Gulf Pro League · UTC

Sources & limitations

Match results, schedule and standings come from the football data feed. Context retrieved 12 Oct 2026 00:10 UTC; provider estimates are attributed separately above. These comparisons are descriptive and are not claimed to be inputs to the Provider model.

Referee statistics and odds movement are not included in this publication. xG and team-news availability are shown separately above. Missing team-news records do not mean every player is available.

Read our data and publication methodology

Publication record

Fixture ID: 1640708
Method: factual-analysis-v1
Content checksum: 0250d7f49cd0605ee221e7bc905f3bb047fb70eef2064405563e2d7eaa7b0d6d